627
FXUS63 KFGF 091711
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SMALL
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
QUIET AND CLEAR IS THE STORY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINING CLOUD COVER IS PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL MN. NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
FOG IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION, THEREFORE LET THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM. REMAINING CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST, LEAVING US MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
BEEN WATCHING VISIBILITIES AND WEBCAMS ALL NIGHT WITH THE FOG.
OVERALL SEEING IMPROVEMENT IN MORE AREAS, STILL PATCHY COVERAGE,
BUT WHERE FOG WAS DENSE IT WAS VERY DENSE. MAY CUT OUT PART OF
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY PRIOR TO 13Z, AND MORE MAY BE ABLE TO CUT
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY BEFORE ENDING TIME WHICH IS 15Z.
OTHERWISE HAVE SOME MID CLOUD BANDS MOVING EAST AND LINGERING
STRATOCU PARK RAPIDS AREA....BUT LOTS OF CLEAR SKY UPSTREAM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A TRUE HODGEPODGE OF CONDITIONS TO START THIS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE AREA. OVERALL HAVE BEEN SEEING GRADUAL CLEARING BUT
THERE REMAINS MID CLOUD PATCHES IN E ND INTO NW MN AND AREAS OF
LOWER STRATOCU IN WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN.
..PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
IN BETWEEN CLOUD AREAS
WHERE SKIES WENT CLEAR, FOG HAS QUICKLY FORMED AND IN THE LAST
HOUR THE FOG HAS SPREAD AND GETTING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EARLIER. FIRST FOG FORMED OVER THE GRASS FIELDS AT ASOS AND AWOS
STATIONS, BUT SEEING SOME FOG STARTING TO MOVE INTO TOWNS. WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU 12Z WENT AHEAD
WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF E ND AND NORTHWEST MN
THRU 15Z. THIS MATCHES TIME FRAME FROM DLH ON THEIR NPW.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. SOME LINGERING HIGH LEVEL SMOKE AROUND BUT HRRR SMOKE
FORECASTS INDICATE THE HIGH LEVEL STUFF IMPROVING FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT WITH SIMILAR LIGHT
WINDS PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN AND IS SHOWN VIA NBM WX FORECAST
GRIDS FOR 06Z-14Z PERIOD WED. SO DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS FOR
EASTERN ND (NOT DVL) AND INTO NW MN. MAINLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
..T-STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND BEYOND
500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH WED-THU PERIOD AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US AS UPPER LOW DOES FORM IN
SOUTHERN OREGON BY 12Z THU. 500 MB SHORT WAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SE SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THU AND GENERATE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHWEST ND OR POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST MANITOBA BY
12Z THU. TRACK OF SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE EAST NEAR THE INTL BORDER
WITH SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASING THRU THE DAY INTO THU
NIGHT ALONG ND/MB BORDER. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK WITH MU
CAPES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE WX THREAT APPEARS LOW.
WEEKEND STORM CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME AS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WESTERN ND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF TODAY. ONCE
THE SUN SETS TONIGHT, WHAT LIGHT WIND WE HAVE WILL GO CALM.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES, FOG WILL LIKELY FORM, MUCH AS WE SAW
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHERE IT FORMS AND FOR HOW LONG IT
LASTS. KFAR AND KBJI HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING FOG. IF
FOG SNEAKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, IT WOULD ALSO IMPACT KGFK AND
KTVF. THEREFORE, ADDED IN AN FM GROUP OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
EACH SITE WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. IF DENSE FOG DOES FORM,
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD DURING THAT FM GROUP. FUTURE ITERATIONS OF THE TAF CAN
REFINE WHERE EXACTLY THE DENSEST FOG WILL FORM AND ADD IT IN
ACCORDINGLY. FOG WILL BURN OFF MID MORNING WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO EVERY TERMINAL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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