791
FXUS63 KFGF 100858
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY. EAST EDGE OF INSTABIIITY AXIS DOES SHIFT INTO DEVILS
LAKE AREA THURSDAY LATE DAY OR NIGHT GIVING ISOLD SEVERE STORM
RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
..AM FOG
FOG FORMED IN CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING HAD AS BEEN INCHING
NORTH-NORTHWEST EVER SINCE WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW. THIS IS MORE ADVECTION FOG THAN WHAT WE SAY LAST
NIGHT WHICH WAS RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG. QUESTION AS ALWAYS IS
HOW FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL FOG GET. DID ADD FAR SE ND INTO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REGION...RICHLAND AND SARGENT COUNTIES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON A BEE LINE FOR FARGO
AND SOUTH CASS COUNTY....BUT MOVING MORE NORTH THAN WEST.
UPDATED TAF TO INDICATE SOME FOG MOVING INTO FARGO BY 11Z.
FOG AREA ALSO NORTHEAST THROUGH PARK RAPIDS AREA, THOUGH MORE
PATCHY THERE, AND INTO CASS LAKE MN AREA, BUT AGAIN WEBCAMS SHOW
MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD.
ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING, SUNNY TODAY. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
..SEVERE RISK PARTS OF NE NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
850 MB JET OF 35 KTS TO GET GOING THIS UPCOMING NIGHT (WED
NIGHT) OVER WESTERN ND AND LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND PARTS OF
NW NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS GET IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE HIGHER
STORM CHANCES NORTH OF THE BORDER THRU SW MANITOBA, SKIRTING
NORTH CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY ITSELF, SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS POSSIBLE IN CONTINUED WARM ADV ZONE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ND. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL ND
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING A 50 PCT AREA OF SFC CAPE
MORE THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30 KTS AND HIGHER
CENTERED NEAR THE ND/MB BORDER WEST OF DEVILS LAKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD INTO DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST MORE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH FOCUS OF THIS JET BEING WINNIPEG AREA. THUS
MODEL BLENDS INCREASE POPS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT WITH LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER. GIVEN POTENTIAL
STRENGTH OF 850 MB JET AND INSTABILITY WORKING INTO DVL REGION
LATE THURSDAY AFTN/EVE ISOLD SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
TO 1 INCH THE MAIN ISSUE. SPC HAS DVL BASIN AND WEST IN A LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS THAT THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
BEST RAINFALL SHIFTS MORE WEST INTO WESTERN ND FRIDAY-SATURDAY
AS UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN OREGON, IDAHO THUS LIFTS NNE INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS WEEKEND. ARC OF INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL WORK EAST AS THIS DOES WITH SUNDAY
SEEING THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES TO THE RRV AND E ND. TOO SOON TO
TELL IF ANY STORM MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WOULDNT DISCOUNT IT AS TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE RRV
AND EAST INTO MN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT FAR AND BJI. ADDITIONAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TVF/GFK/DVL, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE 06Z TAFS. FOG WILL IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO GENERALLY 8-11 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ016-017-
023-024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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