124
FXUS63 KFGF 110849
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES EXIST STARTING TODAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SET UP WITH A RIDGE
FROM KANSAS TO NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA WHILE A TROUGH AND
UPPER LOW GETS SETTLED IN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WEATHER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES, AND ALSO POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEEING SIGNS OF A 500 MB SHORWAVE IN SE SASKATCHEWAN ON WATER
VAPOR. THIS IS HELPING TO GENERATE T-STORMS IN THAT REGION, SOME
OF WHICH WERE SEVERE EARLIER NORTHWEST OF ESTEVAN. ANOTHER 500
MB WAVE IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST ND/MONTANA BORDER WITH A CLUSTER
OF STORMS THERE. FOCUS FOR A 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS RIGHT TOWARD
THE FAR SE SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE EAST EDGE
OF THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST 850 MB ADVECTION HAS
CAUSED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IN AREA FROM
BOTTINEAU TO MINOT AND GARRISON IN CENTRAL ND AND ALSO IN FAR
NORTHWEST ND.
LOOKING OVER VARIOUS CAMS SUCH AS HRRR, NSSL CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA OF STORMS THAT ARE
FORMING IN NORTH CENTRAL ND MOVING OR DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA THIS MORNING AND AS THEY DO GRADUALLY THE AREA SPREADS
EAST. LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AFTER 12Z AND GENERALLY STAYS WEST
OF OUR FCST AREA SO WHILE COULD NEVER RULE OUT AN ELEVATED
HAILER SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF TIL TONIGHT.
NORTHERN FCST AREA WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
TODAY...HIGHEST POPS NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER REGION
THOUGH. AT THIS TIME, FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS THE CHANCE OF STORMS
IS NORTH OF A NEW ROCKFORD TO GRAND FORKS TO BAUDETTE LINE.
TONIGHT THE 850 MB JET MOVES EAST AND SETS UP OVER E ND/RRV INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENT BUT 35-40 KTS. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ESP NORTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA DUE TO PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ALSO IS DUE TO
TRACK OF UPPER WAVE NOW IN SOUTHEAST SASK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
NORTHEAST ND ARE NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE, BUT ENOUGH OF A WARM
LAYER AT 900-850 MB TO GENERATE ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OVER E ND/NW MN. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DVL
REGION INTO MANITOBA BUT DURING THE NIGHT STORMS MAY FORM A BIT
MORE SOUTH THRU E ND IN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR THAT
REASON POPS THU NIGHT REACH FARGO-BEMIDJI AREAS 06Z AND AFTER.
SOME NSSL CAMS AND 00Z HRRR INDICATE A POSSIBLE LINE OF STORMS
MOVING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z. SO IF ANY SEVERE STORMS IT WOULD
BE TONIGHT, ESP OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY STORM CHANCES ARE IN THE MORNING AS ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS VERY WARM, HUMID BUT ALSO AT THIS TIME
DRY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SATURDAY WARM AND HUMID AND MAIN
STORM CHANCE LOOKS WEST....THEN SUNDAY WILL SEE A BAND OF
T-STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH THRU
SASKATCHEWAN AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RRV. WARM
AND HUMID WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 AND TEMPS LOW-MID 80S BUT WARM
TEMPS ALOFT (5000 MB) MAY INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM BEING AS
HIGH AS WOULD EXPECT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH CLOUDS COME IN FROM THE
WEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN KBJI WITH MOST OF THE FOG STAYING SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR AIRPORTS. WILL REMOVE MVFR VIS FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KDVL AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OTHER TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PICK UP WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
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