200
FXUS63 KFGF 121819
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
119 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER AIR PATTERN WOULD KEEP HIGHER STORM CHANCES AND HIGHER
SEVERE RISK TO OUR WEST INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE IN FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO LESSEN
WHILE ALSO MIGRATE EASTWARD DEEPER INTO CENTRAL MN, PROMOTING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO TONIGHT, LATEST CAMS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR WESTERN ND BEING MAIN REGION WHERE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT
MOVING DUE NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE.
THUS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SIGNAL SHOWING UP FOR FOG TONIGHT. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG
TO DEVELOP, INCLUDING DENSE FOG. ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY CURRENTLY HOLDS BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING DENSE FOG AIDED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT HOLD RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG IS WITHIN LAKES COUNTRY OF WEST- CENTRAL
MN, RED LAKE TO LAKE OF THE WOODS, AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND INTO MN. GUIDANCE ISN'T DOING THE BEST ON
PINPOINTING WHERE THIS WILL BE THE CASE, BUT FOR WHAT IT'S
WORTH, IT FAVORS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-CENTRAL MN FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. GETTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN AS LOW LEVEL JET
WANES. BUT UNTIL THEN, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
LOW-END SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THESE HAZARDS,
MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
EARLIER WAS WONDERING HOW THINGS WOULD EVOLVE. THE STORMS IN THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA PICKED UP SPEED AND MOVED EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENED. THOUGH SOME BRIEF WIND GUSTS 55 MPH RANGE EAST OF
GRAND FORKS. STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THRU NORTH
CENTRAL MN (BEMIDJI). A SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS FROM NORTHEAST SD THRU FAR SE ND AND INTO MN LAKES
COUNTRY AROUND FERGUS FALLS INTO PARK RAPIDS. SEEING SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INTENSITY IN THIS AREA IN OTTER TAIL COUNTY. WILL
UPDATE POP GRIDS. FOR LATER TODAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN AS FEED OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY
CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS BEEN SHOWING ALL NIGHT TWO CORES OF WARM
ADVECTION. ONE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION
AND PRODUCING STORMS IN THAT AREA WITH EXPANSION OF STORMS
NOTED. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION HAS BEEN LIMITED
AND NO SEVERE WX WITH THESE. SECOND AREA IS NOSE OF 35 KT 850 MB
JET THAT FEEDS INTO THE STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER RUGBY AREA
AND MOVED THRU DEVILS LAKE. STRONG VERY LARGE HAIL SIGNATURES
NOTED RUGBY AREA INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION...BUT HAIL SIZE FROM
MRMS LIKELY OVERDONE AS HAIL IS FALLING IN A WARM ENVIRONMENT
WITH HIGH KDP VALUES WITH SOME MELTING GOING ON FROM THE CLOUD
BASE TO THE SURFACE. CAMS HAVE REMAINED SO-SO AT BEST FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS OR WEEKS FOR THAT MATTER. OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE
DVL STORMS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN IN TIME AS THEY DO
TOWARD GRAND FORKS, IN TERMS OF HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL A GOOD BET THOUGH, AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS OUT FOR
PARTS OF NORTHERN BENSON COUNTY ND WHERE FRIDAY MORNING HEAVY
RAIN FELL AS WELL. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS RUGBY TO LEEDS IN THE
2-4 INCH RANGE. STORMS HAVE PICKED UP SPEED SINCE LEAVING DEVILS
LAKE AND RAINFALL RATES ARE LESS AND SPEND LESS TIME OVER ONE
AREA.
WHAT HAPPENS TO STORM CHANCES TODAY. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS
THRU 15Z-18Z FRI SO WOULD ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION INTO SE ND INTO NW MN THRU THE MORNING. SOME HINTS AT
CAMS THAT T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE AT THIS
TIME.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND T-STORM
CHANCES SHIFTING BACK WEST AS UPPER THROUGH MOVES EAST AND 500
MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
SHARP 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MINNESOTA AND IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY STORM CHANCES REMAIN WEST THRU SATURDAY. FAR WEST
COULD GET INTO SOME CONVECTION LATER SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN COLORADO RIDGE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THRU THE AREA A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV FCST AND LOOKS LIKE
MORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW
DECENT CAPE VALUES (OVER 1000 J/KG) AHEAD OF THE WAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT FORCING FOR ANY STORMS MAY NEED TO WAIT TIL
TROUGH MOVES IN SUN OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND THEN THE
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY LESS.
ALL THIS MEANS THAT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE IFFY AT BEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AVIATION IMPACTS FROM LOWERED CEILINGS ARE FORECAST IN SOME TAFS
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE CEILINGS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR RANGE. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KDVL, STARTING AROUND 10Z AND POTENTIALLY LASTING
BEYOND 15Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AT KBJI STARTING AROUND
10Z, WITH A 50% CHANCE OF DIPPING INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY,
ALSO POTENTIALLY LASTING BEYOND 15Z. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE LOWEST CEILINGS STARTING AROUND 10Z,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ITS OCCURRENCE AT
THESE SITES AND HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. WHILE A
GRADUAL LIFTING OF IMPACTFUL CEILINGS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 15-18Z, IT IS POSSIBLE (30%) THEY LAST BEYOND 18Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...CJ
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