207
FXUS63 KFGF 131738
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 70 MPH.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IMPACTS TODAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME AREAS
ARE STILL HITTING 1/2SM, BUT THE SPATIAL EXTENT IS IMPROVING
THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH
OF OUR AREA, BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. UPSTREAM H5 TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE FLOW,
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUNDAY EVENING FOR A MENTION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TRAVERSING SOUTHWEST FLOW. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. TORNADO RISK IS EVIDENT, BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES, CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS SHOW MUCH BETTER SUPPORT.
..ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
A RATHER PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
SITUATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA HEADING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FLOW HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO VFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
DVL AND FAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHERE AND WHEN THIS OCCURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE
SAME DIRECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CEILINGS WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED VFR BY 08Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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