391
FXUS63 KFGF 150242
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WANING WITH A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THESE LOOK TO PERSIST ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ROOTED AT 925MB. NOT
EXPECTING ANY OF THESE TO BE SEVERE BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM
CDT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, MOISTURE AND FLOW WITH IT WILL BE TAKEN AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO MIDWEEK, FLOW DRASTICALLY WORSENS, BUT WITH
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BECAUSE FLOW IS WEAK ALOFT, THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION IS LOW.
..SEVERE STORMS TODAY
AN ONGOING MCV OVER THE DAKOTA STATE LINE HAS CAUSED MULTIPLE
TORNADO WARNINGS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN NORTHWARD WITH THE CENTER AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
HAVING SAID THAT, A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MCV EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS REGION WILL BE THE AREA WHERE
STORMS SHOULD FIRE OFF THAT WILL IMPACT US. SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATES ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION INITIATION BEGINNING
TO OCCUR FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE LOW, CURRENTLY RESIDING
ALONG THE IOWA/SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE MCV/LOW WILL BRING ITS FRONT
NORTHWARD WITH IT, ALLOWING STORMS TO PROPAGATE TO OUR AREA.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS THANKS TO ONGOING ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE STRONGEST
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WEST OF OUR CWA.
FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS TWO SECTIONS OF SEVERE EXPECTED WITH A
DIFFERENT DEGREE OF HAZARDS.
THE FIRST REGION IS THE ONE TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MCV. THIS
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEY. HERE, AMPLE VEERING EXISTS TO GENERATE ENOUGH VORTICITY
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TORNADOES. BECAUSE
OF THE SATURATION ALOFT, MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS A LOT MORE
LIMITED, SO HAIL PRODUCTION WILL BE MUCH LESS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING, ALTHOUGH STORM MORPHOLOGY THUS
FAR PAINTS THE GREATEST CHANCES WEST OF OUR CWA. WITH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT, WATER LOADING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH, ALTHOUGH THIS IS ONLY A MEDIUM LEVEL PROBABILITY.
THE SECOND REGION IS EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED BY THE MARGINAL
RISK. HERE, MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT, BUT WITH STRONGER FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH NORTHWARD IN TANDEM
WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT, A VERY HIGH DCAPE WITH VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 75 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MUCH LESS THANKS TO
LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT BUT STILL EXISTS WITH MODEST VEERING.
THE MAIN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHETHER OR NOT WE EVEN SEE A
DEGREE OF STORMS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THIS REGION LOOKS TO BE AN ISSUE, BUT IF IT
DOES OVERCOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED
HAZARDS TO DEVELOP.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
SUNSET, EXITING THE AREA MIDNIGHT AT THE LATEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AT LEAST BE AROUND THE FAR/DVL
TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES AS YOU PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS, WITH GUSTS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 30 AND 50 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY BECOME SHOWERS
WITH WIND DIMINISHING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z TOMORROW, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
PEAKING BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS. GUSTS COULD GET AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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