422
FXUS63 KFGF 151039 AAA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SPC LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SFC LOW AND 500 MB LOW IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 08Z. THIS
WILL MOVE NORTH AND BE NEAR THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL
ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH THRU THE AREA
TODAY.
..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN NW MN THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPS WARM POTENTIAL FOR MU CAPES NEAR 1800 J/KG IN A
BAND FROM ROSEAU TO BEMIDJI AND HREF INDICATES SOME T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT ROSEAU AND N BELTRAMI COUNTY AREA 20-21Z AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVING NORTH. MID LEVEL JET OF 45 KTS AT 500 MB IN
THE AREA AND MAX WINDS AT 850 MB 35-40 KTS IN AREA OF THE
NORTHERN RRV AND NORTHWEST MN. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH IN ANY STORM THAT FORMS AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS NEAR ROSEAU AND BAUDETTE SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP 850 MB
AND SFC TEMPS AROUND 80/LOW 80S AND SFC DEW PTS 65-68.
AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THRU THE OTHER AREAS SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN
OVER E ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN, BUT TIMING OF SHORT WAVE WITH
BEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY FAVOR FAR NORTHEAST FCST AREA.
WINDY TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUFFICIENT FOR SOUTH WINDS 20-35 MPH TODAY...HIGHEST IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH RRV AND FAR NW MN WHERE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. 925 MB WINDS 35 KTS 18Z-21Z AND 850 MB WINDS 35-40
KTS IN THESE AREAS. CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY, BUT OVERALL SUSPECT
CLOSE TO NOT QUITE. THUS NEEDING T-STORMS DEVELOPING TO BRING
DOWN A BIT HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW LIFT FARTHER
NORTH MORE INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA AND WILL SEE SHOWER CHANCES
DIMINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS FCST AFTER 03Z AND SKIES CLEARING.
TUESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. 850 MB TEMPS A
BIT COOLER INTO NE ND BUT 850 MB TEMPS 20+C REMAIN FROM E SD
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE 80S ARE LIKELY.
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SEPARATE 500 MB WAVE DROP
SOUTH AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORM IN SE ND
INTO MN CLOSER TO RESIDUAL WARMTH AND 1000+ J/KG INSTABILITY.
AS THIS SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA OR NEBRASKA AND
MERGES WITH ANOTHER WAVE A LARGER UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND GIVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN PERIOD FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO MWEST CENTRAL MN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PRESENT AT ALL SITES MINUS BJI WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY HAVE CEILINGS PINNED BELOW 1KFT.
WHILE NO FOG ISSUE CURRENTLY PRESENT UNDER THIS LOW STATRUS IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE ALBEIT MUCH TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE
TAF. ELSEWHERE AS THE LOW THAT FORCED THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS
TRACKS NORTH CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF
IFR POCKETS IN DVL AREA. WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING SE TO SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS WIDELY
OVER 20KTS IN THE PM. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH (ALL
BUT FAR) BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME THUNDER
WILL FURTHER ADD THE LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS. TO CAP
IT OFF EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN NW MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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