022
FXUS63 KFGF 160853
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNNESOTA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AS ONE UPPER LOW SITS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA EALRY THIS MORNING,
THERE IS ONE UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THRU NORTHWESET
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING.
THE UPPER LOW IN WYOMING IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
SOUTHERN ND EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A NOT WELL FORECASTED
SHORT WAVE THAT IS SOUTH OF BISMARCK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS NOT HANDLING IT WELL AT ALL. 07Z HRRR IS FINALLY
CATCHING THE AREA OF RAIN AND MOVES IT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
VALLEY CITY AND DEVILS LAKE AND THEN WEAKENS IT. BUT ALSO
EARLIER MODEL RUNS DID THE SAME THING AFTER 1-2 HOURS. COORD
WITH BIS TO SPREAD SOME POPS INTO THAT AREA BTWN VALLEY CITY AND
DVL EARLY THIS MORNING.
..POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
WITH UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW IN CENETRAL MANITOBA AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY TODAY, WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTE WINDS HOLDING FROM EASTERN SD INTO NORTHEAST
MN. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONSENSUS FROM NEAR
ELY MN BACK TOWARD ELBOW LAKE MN AND INTO NORTHEAST SD. MUCAPE
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE
IN A BAND FROM DULUTH TO BRAINERD TO ELBOW LAKE. THUS IDEA OF A
NARROW AXIS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THAT ZONE
SEEMS REASONABLE. NAMNEST IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST THOUGH.
SO POPS IN THIS AREA ARE NOT HIGH YET AS CONFIDENCE IN STORM
FORMATION REMAINS MORE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. SPC HAS THIS
ZONE MENTIONED FROM NE MN INTO SD IN MARGINAL RISK, AND THIS
COVERS FAR SOUTHEAST FCST AREA. TIMING WISE IF STORMS FORM IT
WOULD BE AFTER 6 PM. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ISNT THAT GREAT BUT
ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS. HAZARD
WOULD BE POTENTEIAL FOR 1 INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM NSSL MACHINE LEARNING FOR A HIGH
ENOUGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THAT ZONE TO AT LEAST MENTION.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
POSITION, DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW AS MODELS MOVE THE WYOMING
LOW INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY SLOW MOVING SO A PROLONGUED PERIOD
OF SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES START WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH HOW FAR NORTH RAIN GETS IS UNCERTAIN. MODEL
BLENDS AND WPC BOTH HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 12Z WED TO 12Z
SUN PERIOD OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE IN FAR SE ND, PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN. BUT THIS RAIN WILL FALL IN WAVES, BUT THESE
HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER A LONG PERIOD. BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL IF ONE PERIOD SEEMS TO BE
MORE ROBUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD TOMORROW. SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-3000 FT, SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO ARISE IF DENSITY IS HIGH
ENOUGH. NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX/TT
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