927
FXUS63 KFGF 041819
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
119 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH AGAIN TODAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- RAIN OVER MOST OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ND ARE TRANSITIONING NORTH
AND BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE MATCHING HRRR TRENDS. BEST
COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS 700MB DEFORMATION TRACKS OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND A LLJ
DEVELOPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST. THE PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE/LLJ CORRIDOR WILL
BE WHERE A FEW ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK, AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
RETURNS ON RADAR LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSET OF
ELEVATED/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING, AND I ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS
ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
TOWERING CU STILL EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER, RADAR
RETURNS ARE A LOT WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND THINK THE
OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT MAIN SHOW FOR CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY, WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY,
FINALLY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS REINFORCING SHORTWAVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
..HEAT TODAY
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S C WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TODAY. THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS JUST NOW ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AND SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN ND AND THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE STALLING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AT LEAST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS ARE
85 TO 87 FOR GRAND FORKS AND FARGO, SO WELL WITHIN REACH UNLESS
THE FRONT SPEEDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODEST DEW POINT NEAR 60 DEGREES WILL SET
UP SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HREF HAS 80 TO
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND EVEN A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR OVER 2000 J/KG. THE BEST DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR REMAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT IN THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY THERE IS SOME 25 TO 40 KTS THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
IF THE CAP IS BROKEN. THE FORCING WON'T REALLY BE COMING INTO
OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING, SO SEVERE THREAT IS STILL
CONDITIONAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MESSAGING FOR 1 OUT OF 5
RISK OR MARGINAL. HODOGRAPHS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM LIKE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE LARGEST THREATS.
..RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ECMWF EFI HAS 90TH TO 99TH PERCENTILES FOR HIGH QPF FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO NORTHWESTERN MN. PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF OF OVER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THAT SAME AREA ARE OVER 80 PERCENT,
BUT GOING OVER 2 INCHES DROPS PROBS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 40 PERCENT. FULL NBM IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH ON HEAVY RAIN, WITH UP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF QPF NEAR DEVILS LAKE. OVERALL, RAIN LOOKS
LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND COULD SEE SOME SOAKING AMOUNTS
IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
ND AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR IS CURRENTLY
PREVAILING IN SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN, HOWEVER A LAYER OF
IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS FORMED JUST NORTHWEST OF A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE IN NORTHEAST ND. TRENDS IN OBSERVATION SUPPORT THIS
CONTINUING OVER KDVL AND BEING MUCH MORE VARIABLE NEAR KGFK
BEFORE GUIDANCE SHOWS VFR RETURNING LATE AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST ND AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST MN (20-30% CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME PERIOD). STRATUS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR AS THE MOST ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN TRANSITION
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
(SOUTHERLY EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IT). EVENTUALLY A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AND INCREASE, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THAT FRONT IN SOUTHEAST ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR/DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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