521
FXUS63 KFGF 042049
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS 45
MPH OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FROST DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD TROUGHING IS SHIFTING EAST, WITH DIFFLUENT SW FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. INCREASED
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT AND THE SHIFT IN
PATTERN AND ARRIVAL OF SEVERAL FRONTS IS BRINING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK AS EITHER SPLIT-FLOW OR WEST-SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW
REDEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH IT IS A
PATTERN THAT COULD FEATURE LOWER PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES THAT
CARRY HIGHER VARIABILITY. WHILE TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE ABOVE
AVERAGE, BASED ON NBM PROBABILITIES SPREADS THEY WOULD STILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD AND NOT AS HOT AS THIS LAST WARM UP, WITH THE 75TH
PERCENTILES IN THE 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
..SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT
THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND A LLJ (40-60KT)
DEVELOPS EAST OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE, NOSING INTO NORTHWEST MN LATER
THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EAST OF THIS FRONT, WHILE DEEP EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-45KT
WILL BE IN PLACE. CORRIDOR OF CONCERN FOR ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WHERE THE NOSE OF THIS JET DEVELOPS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE, WITH CAMS SHOWING THE TIMING OR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 02Z THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (UP TO 1") WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN, THOUGH
I WOULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST TO 60 MPH (LOWER
LEVEL PROFILES WOULD TEND TO WORK AGAINST A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
WIND THREAT).
..WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN, AND AS THE MAIN 700 MB TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO
OUR CWA TONIGHT, DEFORMATION ALONG THAT AXIS ALONG WITH 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL HELP ORGANIZED BANDS OR AREAS OF RAIN THAT WOULD
TRACK BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR
NORTHWEST MN. SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN,
WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 0.25" WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
..STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST, AND A PERIOD OF STRONG CAA COINCIDES WITH 4-6MB 6HR
PRESSURE RISES (STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SIGNAL IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN). MIXING HEIGHTS AREN'T GREAT AND WITHOUT THE BIGGER
PUSH OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE CAA CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN
ADVISORY WIND IMPACTS. STILL, NBM SHOWS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES (50%+)
FOR 45 MPH+ WIND GUSTS AND IT IS A PATTERN TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT A
WIND ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED.
..FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
SEASONABLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE 0C TO -2C
850MB ISOTHERMS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING, REINFORCED
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ARRIVES TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS) THE DRY
SURFACE TDS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST OR ISOLATED FREEZE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN MORE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH ON WHETHER
WE REMAIN CLEAR OR NOT, AS THIS IS THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAN NIGHTLY
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AND IMPACT LOW TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
ND AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR IS CURRENTLY
PREVAILING IN SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN, HOWEVER A LAYER OF
IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS FORMED JUST NORTHWEST OF A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE IN NORTHEAST ND. TRENDS IN OBSERVATION SUPPORT THIS
CONTINUING OVER KDVL AND BEING MUCH MORE VARIABLE NEAR KGFK
BEFORE GUIDANCE SHOWS VFR RETURNING LATE AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST ND AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST MN (20-30% CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME PERIOD). STRATUS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR AS THE MOST ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN TRANSITION
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
(SOUTHERLY EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IT). EVENTUALLY A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AND INCREASE, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THAT FRONT IN SOUTHEAST ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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