936
FXUS63 KFGF 080845
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE WORKING OUT AS EXPECTED AS WINDS REMAIN CALM AT
08Z BAUDETTE AREA SOUTHWARD THRU LAKES COUNTRY, BEMIDJI, WADENA
AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE CALM AREAS ARE IN THE MID 20S WADENA
UP THRU BAGLEY TO BAUDETTE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH ARE
OCCURRING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE RED RIVER IN MINNESOTA AND
TEMPS ARE MORE VARIABLE WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 20S BUT A FEW
AREAS LOW-MID 30S MORE SO FAR NORTHWEST MN. SAME ON ND SIDE OF
THE VALLEY WITH NORTH VALLEY MID 30S BUT LOCAL PERSONAL WEATHER
STATIONS AND NDAWN SHOWS SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN BETWEEN
GRAND FORKS AND FARGO. WITH ALL THIS WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING AS IS. BUT FREEZE WARNING IN THE NORTH VALLEY MAY
WELL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AS TEMPERATURES EVEN OUT MORE.
SUNNY SKY TODAY, AND AS HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST, DO LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITH 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN E ND
AND THE NORTHERN RRV, 10-20 MPH THRU MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MN.
A QUITE STRONG 500 MB LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST QUICKLY FROM NW CANADA
INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA THURSDAY AND THEN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SO ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CIRCULATION, BUT AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOWER CHANCES DO LOOK TO INCREASE
EAST OF OUR FCST AREA THRU EASTERN MN INTO NW ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU THURSDAY LATE SOUT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS SHOWS ONLY BRIEF COOLING AND THIS MORE TO OUR EAST.
500 MB RIDGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE
WESTERN US. SHORT WAVES COMING NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TO THE
AREA, BUT FAST MOVING WAVE AND RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE AROUND ONE
HALF NORTHWEST MN WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH IN EASTERN ND.
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
MINNESOTA...
DRIEST AIRMASS WITH SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE RED RIVER AND EAST
AND WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 22 TO 30 DEGREE REGION, HIGHEST
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND LOWEST BEMIDJI AREA. RH VALUES FORECAST
THIS AFTN DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE IN MANY AREAS OF
NW MN WITH CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER AND
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM MIFC (MN FIRE
INTERAGENCY) WITH DRY FUELS IN MANY AREAS ELEVATED WIND OR LOW
RH ENOUGH TO BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SO
BASED ON THE FORECAST DID GO SPS FOR THIS FOR ALL OF MN FCST
AREA. A FEW AREAS ARE IFFY BUT NOT WORTH SPLITTING HAIRS FOR AN
SPS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, 30 KNOTS AS THE REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO. AFTER SUNSET, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HEIGHT AND INTENSITY IS LOW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-027-
029-030.
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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