697
FXUS63 KFGF 101721
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 45 MPH DURING THAT PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING ON TRACK THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 7 TO 12
MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR AS RIDING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION,
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK GRADIENT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT FALL
DAY, WITH SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 58S/LOWER 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS. ONLY UPDATE WAS FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF OUR CWA WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINING COOLER (SEASONAL) TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE REGION TODAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US WITH
BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SW FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND A PERIOD OF WAA AND RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, WITH OUR REGION ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGING OR SPLIT FLOW WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. MID/UPPER TROUGHING REBUILDS IN THE WESTERN US MIDWEEK AND
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS GENERAL TREND AND SIGNAL FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWED BY TROUGHING BUILD TOWARDS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND TIMING/EVOLUTION OF
WAVES THAT MAY PROPAGATE INTO OUR REGION. BESIDES TIMING/COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES AT THIS RANGE THERE ISN'T A SIGNAL FOR ANY
OTHER NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS.
..RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SW FLOW BRINGS INCREASE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION,
WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY (1-1.5"). THE TRACK OF THE MOST ORGANIZED DEFORMATION
NEAR THE 700MB LOW IS SHOWN TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST,
THOUGH THIS COULD CLIP PART OF OUR CWA AS IT TRANSITIONS THROUGH
MANITOBA. WAA A DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A THETA-E AXIS, ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY (500-800 J/KG), WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE BEST SIGNAL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY (60-80% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 0.1"). THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CLUSTERS OF OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
..STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A DRY SLOT AND PERIOD OF
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO EASTERN ND, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG CAA, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER. INCREASE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WOULD BRING HIGHER WINDS
WITHIN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE POTENTIAL DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER
A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS MAY DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST SURFACE
GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES WOULD BE NORTH, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A
LONGER DURATION WIND EVENT CONSIDERING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL MAY BE
AFTER SUNSET FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RRV. LOOKING AT WINDS ALOFT AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD
TAP INTO GUSTS NEAR 58 MPH (WARNING) AND ECWMF EFI DOES SHOW VALUES
0.8 OR HIGHER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA WHICH
CORRELATES WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THAT WILL BE A PERIOD
TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW GUSTS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, THEN
INCREASES DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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