657  
FXUS63 KFGF 111738  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES.  
 
- A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST  
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45  
MPH DURING THAT PERIOD.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO FACILITATE PARTLY  
SUNNY SKIES IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH OCCASIONAL SCATTERED  
LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ND, HOWEVER  
THE DRY LAYER IS LIMITING WHAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE WITH  
REPORTS OF ONLY A TRACE SO FAR WHERE THESE HAVE TRACKED  
(SPRINKLES/VIRGA). AS INSTABILITY INCREASE LATER A FEW HIGH  
BASED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP, HOWEVER THE  
DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ISN'T LIKELY TO BECOME  
SATURATED UNTIL MUCH LATER. THIS OF COURSE RAISES THE POTENTIAL  
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND WE WILL WANT TO MONITOR THAT IN MN WHERE  
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST TO  
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK,  
SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO NEAR TERM TRENDS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
SW FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS  
WHILE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGH  
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN US. BROADER/LONGWAVE  
TROUGHING EVENTUALLY SETTLES IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WITH A  
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND MID/UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THIS EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION MID  
WEEK AND DEEPENS. LONGWAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN US  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN US,  
RESULTING IN A SHORT LIVED BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN DURING THE MIDDLE  
AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. OUR CWA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SPLIT OF  
THE FLOW IN THIS PATTERN UNTIL SW FLOW AND EVENTUAL TROUGHING SHIFTS  
EAST ONCE AGAIN. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE FAVORING  
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY  
IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MODERATION TOWARDS THE END OF  
NEXT WEEK BACK TOWARDS GENERALLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
BESIDES THIS WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WITH THE INITIAL MID/UPPER LOW  
PASSAGE THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES/TIMING AS  
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE FLOW  
AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST UNTIL THE MAIN LONG WAVE  
TROUGH BEGINS TO TRANSITION EAST LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGER SPREAD IN HOW THAT TROUGH  
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST, THOUGH IMPACTS EVEN ON THE CLUSTERS THAT  
SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IMPACTS WOULD JUST BE  
RELATED TO RAINFALL (TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL TOO WARM FOR EARLY  
SEASON WINTER PRECIP IMPACTS).  
   
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING  
 
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER COULD EVENTUAL IMPACT  
MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE  
OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 10KFT EVEN AFTER CLOUD COVER INCREASE ALOFT  
TDS SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST MN  
WHILE MOIST FLOW BUILDING IN ALOFT GRADUALLY BRINGS INCREASING TDS  
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LATER SUPPORT 15-25 MPH  
SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RRV WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.  
WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TO THE EAST OF THE VALLEY BUT RH IS  
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER 30% AND WIND GUSTS WOULD STILL REACH 25  
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SPS WAS ISSUED TO  
COVER THESE IMPACTS. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF, TEMPERATES FALL  
CLOSER TO 70, AND TDS DROP CLOSER TO 25 THEN RFW CONDITIONS HAVE A  
CHANCE TO OCCUR (20% BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE).  
   
..RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT  
 
INITIALLY THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT RAIN REACHING THE  
SURFACE TODAY, WITH VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED  
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING.  
ANOMALOUS PWATS AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE  
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A  
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PROGRESSIVE CLUSTERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WAA ALOFT OVERSPREAD OF OUR CWA TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO SOUTHERN  
MANITOBA. A DRY SLOT DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN ND WHICH WILL  
PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING COVERAGE IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,  
THOUGH SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN MN.  
LIGHT RAINFALL 0.1-0.25" IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION  
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR 0.5" OR HIGHER (50%) FROM  
THE SOUTHERN RRV AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.  
   
..STRONG WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A SIGNAL FOR  
STRONG CAA/6HR PRESSURE RISES COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF  
THE DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LATE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS  
STRONG GRADIENT AND INCREASED MIXING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD  
ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH IN THE RRV. HOWEVER,  
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD  
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A PERIOD  
OF 45 MPH+ GUSTS AND SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL PROFILES ALONG  
AND WEST OF THE RRV ACTUALLY SHOW MAX WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE  
MIXED LAYER AROUND 50KTS WHICH COULD SUPPORT BRIEF/LOCALIZED  
GUSTS AROUND 58MPH (WARNING). ECMWF EFI SHOWS VALUES GENERALLY  
AROUND 0.7 IN OUR CWA (ADVISORY) WITH 0.8 VALUES (WHICH ARE A  
GOOD INDICATION OF WARNING IMPACTS) TO OUR NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE  
PROBABILITIES BASED ON COMBINED RAW ENSEMBLES (LREF) AND NBM ARE  
20-30%. AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY REMAIN CLOSER  
TO SUNSET AS LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE THE DURATION OF  
IMPACTS MAY BE SHORTER AND TIED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. THIS IS STILL A PERIOD TO MONITOR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
MVFR CEILINGS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS  
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING  
PERIOD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS COULD APPROACH IFR DURING THIS TIME.  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS. LLWS  
WILL BE PRESENT STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS LIKELY  
TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL  
JET.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...LYNCH/DJR  
DISCUSSION...DJR  
AVIATION...LYNCH  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page
Main Text Page