301  
FXUS63 KFGF 112106  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
406 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST  
MINNESOTA.  
 
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES.  
 
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA  
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE  
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40MPH OR HIGHER.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH H5  
TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MONTANA. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
CLOSE OFF LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, THEN MOVE  
EAST INTO MANITOBA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WARM AIR AND  
MOISTURE ADVECTION PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG SOUTHWEST  
FLOW. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING  
INTO MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST ON  
MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH SHARP PRESSURE  
RISES AND GOOD MIXING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GUSTY WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. OVERALL A WINDY DAY  
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON  
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AFTER MORNING  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A MORE  
ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN.  
   
..GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING
 
 
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED  
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND  
GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 50 MPH, WITH A 60 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT R-CLIMATE IS  
NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR WIND AND NEAR MINIMUMS FOR PRESSURE. THIS IS  
IN LINE WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL,  
WITH MAX WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING TO NEAR WARNING THRESHOLDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
MVFR CEILINGS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS  
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING  
PERIOD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS COULD APPROACH IFR DURING THIS TIME.  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS. LLWS  
WILL BE PRESENT STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS LIKELY  
TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL  
JET.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-  
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-053-054.  
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-  
008-013>015-022-027-029-030.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...LYNCH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page