304  
FXUS63 KFGF 112345  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES.  
 
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA  
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE  
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40MPH OR HIGHER.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
CIRRUS IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM  
SYSTEM. THERE ARE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS  
WE REMAIN IN A WAA REGIME. EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED  
EARLIER AS STORMS POPPED UP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER,  
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS HAVE KEPT MOST IF NOT ALL OF ANY ASSOCIATED  
RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FOR EXAMPLE, ONLY A HANDLE OF  
TRACE REPORTS ARE SHOWING UP ON NDAWN, EVEN WHERE HEFTIER RADAR  
RETURNS HAVE TRACKED. THEREFORE DID NOT SEE A REASON TO ADJUST  
POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER  
DARK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES AND THE  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH H5  
TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MONTANA. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
CLOSE OFF LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, THEN MOVE  
EAST INTO MANITOBA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WARM AIR AND  
MOISTURE ADVECTION PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG SOUTHWEST  
FLOW. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING  
INTO MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST ON  
MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH SHARP PRESSURE  
RISES AND GOOD MIXING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GUSTY WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. OVERALL A WINDY DAY  
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON  
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AFTER MORNING  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A MORE  
ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN.  
   
..GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING  
 
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED  
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND  
GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 50 MPH, WITH A 60 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT R-CLIMATE IS  
NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR WIND AND NEAR MINIMUMS FOR PRESSURE. THIS IS  
IN LINE WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL,  
WITH MAX WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING TO NEAR WARNING THRESHOLDS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE  
TONIGHT, IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES FOR VARYING DURATIONS. ALONG  
WITH THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION, CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO  
MVFR FOR KGFK, KDVL AND KTVF. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY MORNING AT KDVL, BUT THE EXACT TIMEFRAME REMAINS TRICKY  
TO PIN DOWN, SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LLWS IS FORECASTED  
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 50  
KNOTS SITS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPACTS FROM  
LLWS, CEILINGS, AND PRECIPITATION, WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED  
IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN FOR  
SUNDAY. GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE FORECASTED AT ALL SITES  
EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL INITIALLY START OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST,  
BUT PIVOT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-  
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-053-054.  
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-  
008-013>015-022-027-029-030.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...RAFFERTY  
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...RAFFERTY  
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