864  
FXUS63 KFGF 120442  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES.  
 
- WINDY ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS  
OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.  
 
 
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGUN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND, PUSHING NORTHWARDS  
OUT OF SD. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.  
UPDATED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO TIME RAIN CHANCES OUT A  
LITTLE BETTER. OTHERWISE, WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED, WITH  
GUSTS HOLDING ON AT MOST SITES. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP FURTHER IN THE MORNING.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
CIRRUS IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM  
SYSTEM. THERE ARE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS  
WE REMAIN IN A WAA REGIME. EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED  
EARLIER AS STORMS POPPED UP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER,  
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS HAVE KEPT MOST IF NOT ALL OF ANY ASSOCIATED  
RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FOR EXAMPLE, ONLY A HANDLE OF  
TRACE REPORTS ARE SHOWING UP ON NDAWN, EVEN WHERE HEFTIER RADAR  
RETURNS HAVE TRACKED. THEREFORE DID NOT SEE A REASON TO ADJUST  
POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER  
DARK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES AND THE  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH H5  
TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MONTANA. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
CLOSE OFF LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, THEN MOVE  
EAST INTO MANITOBA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WARM AIR AND  
MOISTURE ADVECTION PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG SOUTHWEST  
FLOW. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING  
INTO MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST ON  
MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH SHARP PRESSURE  
RISES AND GOOD MIXING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GUSTY WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. OVERALL A WINDY DAY  
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON  
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AFTER MORNING  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A MORE  
ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN.  
   
..GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING  
 
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED  
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND  
GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 50 MPH, WITH A 60 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT R-CLIMATE IS  
NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR WIND AND NEAR MINIMUMS FOR PRESSURE. THIS IS  
IN LINE WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL,  
WITH MAX WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING TO NEAR WARNING THRESHOLDS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
RAIN HAS NOW BEGUN IN EARNEST AT KDVL, KGFK AND KFAR. RAIN WILL  
QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT TWO HOURS,  
IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL RANGE FROM  
VFR TO MVFR WHILE IT IS RAINING, WITH GENERALLY THE SAME IDEA  
FOR CEILINGS, TEETERING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE  
KVDL, WHERE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL SNEAK IN OVERNIGHT, SO  
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RAIN WILL END FROM  
WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, ALREADY GUSTY WINDS  
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS,  
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
ALSO SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THAT WE HAVE  
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AT SITES FROM THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY BUT GENERALLY  
IMPROVE FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON ONWARD, WITH SITES THAT ARE  
STUCK IN MVFR DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SEEING VFR BY THE END  
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KBJI, AS BEING  
THE FURTHEST EAST, LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER A LITTLE  
LONGER.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-  
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-053-054.  
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-  
008-013>015-022-027-029-030.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...RAFFERTY  
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...RAFFERTY  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page
Main Text Page