275  
FXUS63 KFGF 121513  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN NORTHWEST  
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES  
SUCH AS HARVEST OPERATIONS.  
 
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER  
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.  
STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
PERIODIC ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND GUSTS (45 MPH) ARE STARTING BE  
OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AMID SOUTH-SOUTHEAST  
FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DAYTIME  
MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE ATTEMPTS TO TAP INTO THE VERY STRONG,  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  
 
THE LEADING, WARM SECTOR LOW LEVEL JET WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO  
CENTRAL/EAST MN WANING SOME. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A BRIEF LULL IN  
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST THIS  
AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR GUSTIEST WINDS THEN COMES  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN EASTERN ND, PARTICULARLY DEVILS  
LAKE BASIN. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR WARNING-CRITERIA GUSTS (58  
MPH) IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD COLD AIR ADVECTION COME IN  
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
THE MID LEVEL DRY/SUBSIDENT REGION IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO  
EASTERN ND WITH SHOWERS STILL LINGERING IN THE IMMEDIATE RED  
RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL TIMING OF ACTIVITY IS ON TRACK, THOUGH  
ADJUSTMENTS TO COVERAGE WERE NECESSARY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MN WHERE AREAS  
OF SHOWERS APPEAR TO CONTINUE TO INTO MIDDAY (A LITTLE SLOWER  
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST).  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
SW FLOW IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS  
MORNING AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS  
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING, AND AFTER A DRY  
SLOT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (BETTER COVERAGE IN MN). THIS STRONG COLD  
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND  
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  
RIDGING DOES RETURN AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING REBUILDS OVER THE  
WESTERN US AND EVENTUALLY SW FLOW RETURNS BRINGING TEMPERATURES  
BACK TO SEASONAL RANGES (UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) AND ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  
THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN  
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE EVENTUAL  
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HOWEVER THERE  
REMAINS HIGHER SPREAD IN SMALLER DETAILS WITHIN THE PATTERN  
WHICH INFLUENCE TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO  
WARMER TEMP PROFILES IN ALL GUIDANCE P-TYPE WOULD BE RAIN AND  
ONLY IMPACTS WOULD BE TO ONGOING HARVEST OPERATIONS OR THOSE  
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  
   
..RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
 
 
THE MOST ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH LARGE  
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TRACKING THROUGH SW FLOW ALONG A STRONG LLJ AND AXIS OF  
WAA. A DRY SLOT IS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN  
SW FLOW TRANSITIONS NORTH AND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL  
EVENTUALLY MERGE AND DEEPEN THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD  
RESULT IN A LULL/BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, WITH ENOUGH CLEARING/BREAKS  
IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO POSSIBLE STEEPEN  
WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER.  
NEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN BY CAMS TO  
REDEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITHING THE RED RIVE VALLEY AS  
IT PUSHES EAST WITH COVERAGE PEAKING IN NORTHWEST MN BEFORE ENDING  
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER/STABLE AIR IN WEST-  
NORTHWEST FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75"  
OF RAINFALL SO FAR ALONG THE RRV AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST.  
ADDITIONAL TOTALS 0.1 TO 0.5" MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN ND BEFORE THE DRY  
SLOT ARRIVES BASED ON HREF AND RADAR TIMING, WHILE AND HREF PMM  
SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS 0.5-1.25" IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE IS IS  
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER/REDEVELOP.  
   
..STRONG WINDS TODAY
 
 
INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND  
POTENTIAL INCREASED MIXING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE MAIN PERIOD OF WINDS  
IS STILL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFT IN WINDS TO  
THE WEST WITH STRONGER CAA AND PRESSURE RISES PEAKING IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR GUSTS TO  
50MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ECMWF EFI SHOWS VALUES  
OF 0.7-0.8 WITH NO NOTABLE SHIFT OF TAILS, SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY  
AND LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR WARNING IMPACTS.  
 
THERE IS A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN MIXED LAYER WINDS IN THE  
IMMEDIATE VALLEY AS STRONGER GRADIENT TRANSITIONS NORTH INTO  
MANITOBA THIS EVENING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP  
ENOUGH MIXING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN CLOSER TO THE LLJ AROUND THE  
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW IN CANADA AND STRONG GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY  
TO LINGER THERE BEYOND 8 PM INTO THE EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS  
EXTENDED IN TIME FOR THOSE AREAS IN OUR NORTHWEST BEYOND 8 PM  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO COVER THAT TREND/SIGNAL. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE RRV.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
RAIN HAS NOW BEGUN IN EARNEST AT KDVL, KGFK AND KFAR. RAIN WILL  
QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT TWO HOURS,  
IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL RANGE FROM  
VFR TO MVFR WHILE IT IS RAINING, WITH GENERALLY THE SAME IDEA  
FOR CEILINGS, TEETERING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE  
KDVL, WHERE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL SNEAK IN OVERNIGHT, SO  
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RAIN WILL END FROM  
WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, ALREADY GUSTY WINDS  
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS,  
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
ALSO SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THAT WE HAVE  
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AT SITES FROM THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY BUT GENERALLY  
IMPROVE FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON ONWARD, WITH SITES THAT ARE  
STUCK IN MVFR DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SEEING VFR BY THE END  
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KBJI, AS BEING  
THE FURTHEST EAST, LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER A LITTLE  
LONGER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AS ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM  
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN EAST FOLLOWED BY NEW SHOWER  
DEVELOPMENT (AND A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS) THIS  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT  
OF AMPLE BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO  
SHOW HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS, WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY  
FAVORING THIS TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR RETURNS.  
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDDAY, AND STRONGEST  
GUSTS (TO 40KT) SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACTS ALL EASTERN ND TAF  
SITES AND KTVF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST BEHIND A FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONGER  
GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH 05Z AT KDVL.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-  
027>030-038-039-053.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-  
015-024-026-054.  
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-  
008-013>015-022-027-029-030.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CJ/DJR  
DISCUSSION...DJR  
AVIATION...DJR  
 
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