783
FXUS63 KFGF 122005
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
LINGER IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. THIS IS CONTINUING STRONG WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND
OF AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, AND EVENTUALLY INTO MINNESOTA. NEAR THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT,
PARTICULARLY INTO MINNESOTA.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS, A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP
COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE
REGION WHILE MODIFYING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES TO DIP WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS EAST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INTO THE DAKOTAS AROUND TUESDAY, FAVORING MORE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2 CORRIDOR.
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH
BREAKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME HOLD RELATIVELY BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS NOT A SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY INTO
THIS TIMEFRAME DECREASES DRAMATICALLY.
..STRONG WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT
NOW THAT THIS MORNING'S VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND
ACCOMPANYING STRONG GUSTS HAVE PUSHED INTO MINNESOTA WHILE ALSO
WANING, ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO POST-FRONTAL WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST TO
LOCALLY LINGER WELL INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE ISOLATED
GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 50-60 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS.
ADDITIONALLY, A FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A WIND SHIFT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25KT GUSTING TO 30KT ARE AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT HOLDS SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS BUT OUT OF THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION LIES AT
KDVL WHERE WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-12Z WILL BE
30-40KT, WHEREAS OTHER SITES AFTER 00Z WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE
INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS SHIFTING
WINDS ARE WITHIN RESPECTIVE TAFS, HOLDING MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS ASPECT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z, LINGERING LONGER AT KDVL UNTIL AROUND 06Z. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING BEYOND 06Z IS POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE), PERHAPS UNTIL
09Z TO 12Z.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM (30% CHANCE OF OCCURRING) ARE FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KGFK, KTVF, AND KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
027>030-038-039-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027-029-030.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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