256  
FXUS63 KFGF 130432  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1132 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE DEVILS  
LAKE BASIN.  
 
 
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
UPDATED POPS, AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ON THE MINNESOTA  
SIDE OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REMAIN  
PERSISTENT AS THE MAIN PUSH OF CAA IS PROPAGATING THROUGH RIGHT  
NOW. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO FALL OFF IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND  
POINTS TO THE EAST, WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK TO END  
AT 8 PM. HIGHER GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH REMAIN PREVALENT IN THE  
DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 4 AM.  
OVERALL, HEADLINE TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES  
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT  
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
SEASONABLY STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE  
PROVINCES. THIS IS CONTINUING STRONG WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND  
OF AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS, AND EVENTUALLY INTO MINNESOTA. NEAR THE FRONT LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS  
A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT,  
PARTICULARLY INTO MINNESOTA.  
 
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS, A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH  
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO  
THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP  
COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE  
REGION WHILE MODIFYING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.  
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL  
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES TO DIP WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS EAST OF  
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
INTO THE DAKOTAS AROUND TUESDAY, FAVORING MORE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY  
2 CORRIDOR.  
 
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH  
BREAKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE WARMER  
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY  
TIMEFRAME HOLD RELATIVELY BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT  
THIS TIME, THERE IS NOT A SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY INTO  
THIS TIMEFRAME DECREASES DRAMATICALLY.  
   
..STRONG WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT  
 
NOW THAT THIS MORNING'S VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND  
ACCOMPANYING STRONG GUSTS HAVE PUSHED INTO MINNESOTA WHILE ALSO  
WANING, ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO POST-FRONTAL WINDS BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST  
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND  
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE STRONG WESTERLY WIND  
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN  
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST TO  
LOCALLY LINGER WELL INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE ISOLATED  
GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 50-60 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
CEILINGS ARE ALREADY ON THE RISE, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE  
TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR EARLY AT KDVL. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO START THE NIGHT, SLOWLY  
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. GUSTS  
WILL FINALLY DROP OFF MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHTER  
WINDS WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-  
026-054.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...RAFFERTY  
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...RAFFERTY  
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