584  
FXUS63 KFGF 131721  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF 0.75  
INCH QPF WED-FRI 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST ND. THIS RAINFALL MAY  
IMPACT THE ONGOING HARVEST.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVENT CLOUD COVER FROM MOVING INTO THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN  
NORTH DAKOTA, AS WELL AS NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50  
DEGREES.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
CLOUDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND MOVING EAST BUT DISSIPATE AS THEY  
DO SO AFTER DVL. STILL THINK SOME CU WILL FORM IN THE NORTH WITH  
DAYTIME HEATING IN LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN GFS AND  
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR GFK THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE ALL LOOKING  
GOOD AND WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THRU MANITOBA AND IS  
LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA AT 08Z. PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AND  
COLD ADVECTION WENT THRU THE AREA IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING  
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS 50-55 MPH DEVILS LAKE, LANGDON  
AND WALHALLA ND 0230Z-0430Z WITH WIND GUSTS 40-49 MPH IN MOST  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE 03Z-05Z PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE BUT  
SPEEDS LESS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER THRU THE DAY AS LOW MOVES  
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THUS WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS LEFT  
FOR DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXPIRED AT 4 AM. MONITORING AREA OF  
STRATOCU MOVING SOUTHEAST AND EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN  
CENTRAL MANITOBA BUT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THE 850 MB MOISTURE  
LAYER DOES WEAKEN TODAY. PLUS THICKER STRATOCU HAVING A HARD  
TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN BAUDETTE-THIEF  
RIVER FALLS-GRAFTON-NEW ROCKFORD. WOULD EXPECT SOME DAYTIME  
HEATING CU TODAY WITH RESIDUAL 850 MB MOISTURE NORTH, AFTER  
THICKER EARLY MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MOVE OUT. ANTICIPATE A  
SUNNY DAY SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY  
LOW TO MID 50S, BUT SOME UPPER 40S FAR NORTH. TONIGHT HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN MANITOBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MN GIVING LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKY  
AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.  
SO BASED ON COLLAB WITH DLH DID TREND TOWARD NBM90/75 FOR LOWS  
TONIGHT IN NW MN. CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ND WILL  
KEEP THIS AREA CLOSER TO GUIDANCE.  
 
TUESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE SEVERAL DAYS WITH  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US  
AFFECTS OUR WEATHER WITH REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ONE WEAK  
SHORT WAVE TO BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MAINLY THOUGH  
SOUTH AND WESTERN ND AND INTO SD, CENTRAL MN. NBM WHICH WAS USED  
FOR POPS ARE A BIT DRIER IN NORTHEAST ND/NORTHWEST MN TUESDAY  
THAN GFS WHICH DOES BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CANADIAN  
BORDER TUES AFTN/EVE.  
 
STRONGER 500 MB WAVE THAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL  
MOVE NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE IN WESTERN ND INTO MANITOBA  
VIA GFS, WITH 00Z ECMWF A BIT FARTHER WEST. GFS ENSEMBLES  
SUPPORT A SLIGHT WEST TRACK FOR WED LATE INTO FRIDAY MORNING  
WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE WITH LIKELY POPS  
THURSDAY OVER ALL THE REGION, WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 50 PCT  
PROBS OF MORE THAN 0.75 INCH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL  
ND 12Z WED TO 12Z FRI. WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER OUR  
AREA WITH MU CAPES REACHING 500 J/KG AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 IN  
SOUTHERN RRV THURSDAY SO DO HAVE A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS, THOUGH  
NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL TAF SITES THIS  
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS WEST OF KDVL,  
WITH ALL SITES SEEING EITHER SKC OR FEW CLOUD GROUPS. WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TAPERING OFF  
AROUND 20-21Z, AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE  
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...LYNCH  
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