794  
FXUS63 KFGF 140432  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD IMPACT THE ONGOING  
HARVEST. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.75 INCHES OR  
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
 
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY DROPPING TONIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH  
WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S AND EVEN A FEW ALREADY HITTING FREEZING.  
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE REGION TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S OR EVEN  
UPPER 20S. WHILE ALL AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN A KILLING FREEZE  
THIS SEASON WE DO UNDERSTAND SOME GARDENERS MAY STILL BE  
TRYING TO MILK THE LAST OF THE WARMISH FALL DAYS, SO WITH THAT  
IN MIND THIS AT LEAST LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WIDESPREAD FREEZE  
AT LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TUESDAY MAINLY FOR TIMING AND  
COVERAGE BASED ON SOME INITIAL DRY AIR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF  
THE QPF. OVERALL STILL EXPECTING A TRACE FOR ALL WITH UP TO A  
TENTH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 200. NOT MUCH MORE THAN ENOUGH  
TO SETTLE THE HARVEST DUST AND MAYBE KEEP CROPS A LITTLE TOO WET  
TO KEEP COMBINES IN THE FIELD FOR THE DAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. LOOK FOR  
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S  
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT THE HWY 200  
CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH, LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
30S. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S  
BEFORE WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
   
..RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK  
 
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO  
BRING SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.  
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES  
THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
INCREASING HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL  
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO  
THE EAST HEADING INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL, THERE IS A 50 PERCENT  
CHANCE FOR 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST  
CHANCES BEING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY  
MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH  
MAINLY IMPACTING DVL, FAR, AND GFK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER  
CONFIDENCE FOR TVF AND BJI. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOWERING CIGS  
FROM SOME HIGH SCATTED CIRRUS TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC AT  
4-6KT BY THIS 21-00Z TOMORROW. MVFR COULD LOOKS AT LEAST  
SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR FAR AND DVL THOUGH IF TIMING ENDS UP A  
LITTLE SLOWER THEN THE TAFS AS WRITTEN WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE  
OPTIMISTIC SIDE.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...TT  
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