952  
FXUS63 KFGF 141719  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT MAIN RAIN CHANCE IS LATE WEDNESDAY  
INTO FRIDAY. IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD THERE IS A  
50 PERCENET CHANCE OF 0.75 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN NORTHEAST  
ND. THIS AMOUND OF RAIN MAY AFFECT FARMERS AND THE HARVEST.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS  
FORECAST UPDATE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR  
IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL AT TIMES.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
SOME OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAINFALL BUT IT HAS  
BEEN SPORADIC THUS FAR, INDICATING ONGOING SLOW SATURATION.  
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH TOTALS AT MOST TO A TENTH IN  
ISOLATED LOCATIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD TRACE TO A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
CLOUDS ARE NOW SPREADING INTO NORTHERN FCST AREA AFTER A MOSTLY  
CLEAR NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S NORTH OF HWY 2.  
RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN CENTRAL ND...IT WILL BE FIGHTING DRY  
AIRMASS BELOW 800 MB, SO REGIONAL COMPOSITES WILL BE TOO WET IF  
YOU WILL. BUT THERE IS LIGHT RAINFALL NOTED SPREADING NORTH-  
NORTHEAST NEAR JAMESTOWN WEST.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
NOW THAT THAT STORM SYSTEM IN MANITOBA HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST,  
500 MB FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD  
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE  
FORECCAST AREA THIS MORNING. CLEAR ENOUGH SKY THE FIRST PART OF  
HE NIGHT TO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN FAR NORTHEAST ND  
AND NORTHWEST MN, BUT TEMPS HAVE STABILIZED SINCE 07Z. EXPECT A  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TODAY AND CLOUDS  
TO HOLD THRU END OF THE WEEK. NOW POSITION OF THE 500 MB UPPER  
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS IS KEEPING ANY DEEPER MOISTURE  
FROM ADVECTING NORTH, AND ALSO WATER VAPOR SHOWS LIMITED  
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. SO DESPITE  
SEVERAL UPPER WAVES MOVING THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RAINFALL WILL  
NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT COULD BE.  
 
ONE BROAD SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL JET MOVING FROM EASTERN  
WYOMING THRU NORTHWEST SD INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY, WITH  
ADDITION SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING WESTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS  
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS  
LIKE TWO AREAS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY ONE IN SOUTHWEST  
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ND AND THE OTHER FOCUSED IN EASTERN SD  
INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. SFC HIGH CENTER AND DRY  
AIR OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN MN  
THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND NAM FOR GFK AND DVL SHOW  
DRY AIR HANGING ON TIL 17Z DVL AND 20Z GFK AND HANGING ON ALL  
DAY IN BDE. SO THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES IN NW MN AND FAR  
NORTH RRV. USED A BLEND OF NBM/CONSHORT/ECAM TO BLEND WITH  
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND TWEEKED TOWARD A DRIER SCENARIO FOR NW  
MN. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT FOR OUR AREA TODAY INTO THIS  
EVENING, UNDER A TENTH.  
 
STRONG 500 MB LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA  
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND INTO NEVADA AND UTAH  
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN ND AND  
EASTERN MT BY LATE THURSDAY. BEST ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD  
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL CONTAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE, WITH PWATS  
INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. SFC LOW WITH  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST ONE, BUT  
STILL WILL NEED TO SEE ABOUT TRACK OF SFC/UPPER LOW AS MAIN  
RAINFALL AND HIGHEST CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WILL BE  
NEAR THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND THIS MAY MEAN HIGHEST CHANCE OF 1  
INCH OR MORE MORE WEST THAN NBM MODEL HAS. NBM AND CHANCES FOR 1  
INCH OR MORE OF QPF THU-FRI IS 30 PCT IN CANDO AREA AND HIGHER  
FARTHER WEST, AND NBM HAS HIGHEST QPF (1+ INCH) WEST CENTRAL  
INTO NORTH CETNRAL ND, WITH UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH FARGO AND  
SOUTH/EAST. REGARDLESS THOUGH HIGH POPS THURSDAY AND MORE NORTH  
FOR FRIDAY.  
 
IMPACTS FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL, BUT WILL  
POTENTIALLY BRING ISSUES FOR FARMERS INVOLVED IN THE HARVEST.  
 
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS MAIN 500 MB LIFTING NORTH  
WITH LINGERING LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY AND  
CLEARING SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BENEATH  
VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL TAF SITES,  
BUT DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER, PARTICULARLY THE  
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO, TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR AT  
DVL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE EAST, ALTHOUGH  
DIRECTIONS MAY VARY AT TIMES SINCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK  
AND BELOW 8 KNOTS.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...PERROUX/RIDDLE  
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...PERROUX  
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