581  
FXUS63 KFGF 141817  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
117 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A 50% CHANCE FOR 0.75" OR MORE OF  
RAINFALL EXISTS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
PERSISTENT PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO OUR AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SOLID ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING  
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET FOR THE MOST  
PART AS STRONGER FORCING EXITS THE REGION. DRIZZLE CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT BUT FORCING APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT THIS  
SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR FROM  
THIS.  
 
ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE CURRENTLY LANDFALLING UPPER LOW  
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT  
TOWARDS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING  
COMBINED WITH INTERMITTENT FRONTOGENESIS WILL FACILITATE SOLID  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE MAIN TRACK  
OF THE LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON MAINLY A MORE  
WESTERLY TRACK FOR OUR AREA, PLACING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR OUR  
AREA WILL MOST LIKELY FALL WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WITH  
TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES PUSHING CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SOME  
LOCATIONS. TOTALS WILL DIMINISH AS YOU PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH  
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORCING WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL  
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS.  
 
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY AT THE LATEST, GIVING A  
BRIEF PERIOD FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AS LARGE SCALE  
RIDGING IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS IN BEHIND THE UPPER  
LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BENEATH  
VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL TAF SITES,  
BUT DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER, PARTICULARLY THE  
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO, TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR AT  
DVL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE EAST, ALTHOUGH  
DIRECTIONS MAY VARY AT TIMES SINCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK  
AND BELOW 8 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...PERROUX  
AVIATION...PERROUX  
 
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