839  
FXUS63 KFGF 142330  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
630 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A 50% CHANCE FOR 0.75" OR MORE OF  
RAINFALL EXISTS.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
SHOWERS ARE LARGELY BEGINNING TO WANE WITH JUST A FEW ECHOS  
REMAINING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH  
MINIMAL ACTUAL ACCUMULATION TO COME. TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING  
INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT SO EVEN IF ROADS DO REMAIN WET AT ALL  
NOT EXPECTING ANY SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
PERSISTENT PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO OUR AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SOLID ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING  
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET FOR THE MOST  
PART AS STRONGER FORCING EXITS THE REGION. DRIZZLE CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT BUT FORCING APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT THIS  
SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR FROM  
THIS.  
 
ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE CURRENTLY LAND FALLING UPPER  
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO  
LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC  
FORCING COMBINED WITH INTERMITTENT FRONTOGENESIS WILL FACILITATE  
SOLID RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE  
MAIN TRACK OF THE LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON MAINLY  
A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR OUR AREA, PLACING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR OUR  
AREA WILL MOST LIKELY FALL WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WITH  
TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES PUSHING CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SOME  
LOCATIONS. TOTALS WILL DIMINISH AS YOU PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH  
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORCING WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL  
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS.  
 
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY AT THE LATEST, GIVING A  
BRIEF PERIOD FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AS LARGE SCALE  
RIDGING IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS IN BEHIND THE UPPER  
LOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT WITH  
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT WITH POCKETS CLOSER TO 2000. WINDS  
GENERALLY SE AT 5-8KTS SO THINKING SOME ISOLATED FOG IN EASTERN  
NORTH DAKOTA AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES IS POSSIBLE BUT LOW  
CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE WITH RAIN ENDING IT WILL REALLY JUST BE A  
NIGHT OF MONITORING FOR CIGS DROPPING FURTHER THAN EXPECTED AND  
AMENDING AS NEEDED.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...PERROUX  
AVIATION...TT  
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