826  
FXUS63 KFGF 150453  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRIZZLE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY WEST OF THE  
VALLEY.  
 
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A 50% CHANCE FOR 0.75" OR MORE OF  
RAINFALL EXISTS.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
ONCE AGAIN EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE BUT OMITTED ANY FOG  
AS VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS APPEAR TO MORE DRIVEN BY THE  
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN ACTUAL FOG. USED CLOUD HEIGHT THRESHOLD  
OF 1000FT TO DELINEATE WHERE TO PUT THE DZ SO MAY STILL BE ON  
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE BUT SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS LAST AT LEAST  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH IT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ACROSS  
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 18Z  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI COTEAU AND POINTS WEST HAS LEAD  
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN NORTH  
DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL  
PATTERN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING EXPECTING THIS TO  
CONTINUE WITH SOME ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE. ADDED JUST THE  
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY FOG IN  
LATER UPDATES.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
SHOWERS ARE LARGELY BEGINNING TO WANE WITH JUST A FEW ECHOS  
REMAINING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH  
MINIMAL ACTUAL ACCUMULATION TO COME. TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING  
INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT SO EVEN IF ROADS DO REMAIN WET AT ALL  
NOT EXPECTING ANY SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
PERSISTENT PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO OUR AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SOLID ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING  
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET FOR THE MOST  
PART AS STRONGER FORCING EXITS THE REGION. DRIZZLE CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT BUT FORCING APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT THIS  
SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR FROM  
THIS.  
 
ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE CURRENTLY LAND FALLING UPPER  
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO  
LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC  
FORCING COMBINED WITH INTERMITTENT FRONTOGENESIS WILL FACILITATE  
SOLID RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE  
MAIN TRACK OF THE LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON MAINLY  
A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR OUR AREA, PLACING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR OUR  
AREA WILL MOST LIKELY FALL WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WITH  
TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES PUSHING CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SOME  
LOCATIONS. TOTALS WILL DIMINISH AS YOU PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH  
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORCING WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL  
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS.  
 
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY AT THE LATEST, GIVING A  
BRIEF PERIOD FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AS LARGE SCALE  
RIDGING IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS IN BEHIND THE UPPER  
LOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
CONDITIONS HAVE GONE DOWNHILL QUICKLY IN DVL AS DRIZZLE HAS  
EXPANDED JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST AMID THE UPSLOPE REGIME WITH IFR  
TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD THERE.  
FURTHER EAST FOR VALLEY SITES LIKE GFK AND FAR, MVFR IS WITH  
ONGOING OR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH A LOW  
CHANCE FOR IFR. IN BJI AND TVF EXPECT HIGH MVFR THROUGH THE DAY  
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE THAT COULD BRING VIS TO 4-5SM. DVL  
CURRENTLY SEEING VIS AT 5SM BUT JUST A BIT WEST OVER IN RUGBY  
VIS AT 2SM DUE TO THE DRIZZLE.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...PERROUX  
AVIATION...TT  
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