416  
FXUS63 KFGF 150854  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
354 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY IMPACT THE ONGOING  
HARVEST, WITH 40 PERCENT OF 0.75 INCH OR MORE IN THE DEVILS  
LAKE AND FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
500 MB LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN LAS  
VEGAS AND RENO. MODELS HAVE LOCKED IN ON TRACK OF UPPER LOW TO  
AROUND SIDNEY MT/WILLISON ND AREA BY 00Z FRI WITH SFC LOW INTO  
CENTRAL ND. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO MANITOBA  
THU NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WILL MEAN THE HIGHER CHANCES  
OF 1+ INCH OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED A BIT WEST AND MORE FOCUSED IN  
WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ND AND A SLIGHT SHIFT WEST IN PERCENTAGES  
OF 0.75 INCH AND 0.50 INCH OR MORE WITH FOCUS FOR THIS DEVILS  
LAKE-LANGDON-CAVALIER AREA.  
 
FOR TODAY...SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO LOCK  
IN FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN, NORTHEAST SD NORTHWEST TOWARD  
DVL AND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL ND THRU TODAY. DID ADD SOME FOG TO  
THE WESTERN FCST AREA STRIPE FROM DVL TO GWINNER AS FOG IS  
LOWERING VSBYS JUST WEST IN CARRINGTON. KEPT THE DRIZZLE MENTION  
AS WELL THRU 17Z. SOME DRIER EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE IFR  
CLOUDS WEST OF GRAND FORKS WITH FARGO ON THE EDGE...WITH SOME  
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE NW MN. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S, THOUGH  
BARELY 50 IN THE WEST AS THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION GOING ON  
THRU THE DAY. 850 MB JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH  
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.40 INCHES. INITIAL RAIN BAND WITH  
POTENTIAL T-STORMS DUE TO INSTABILITY CENTERED AROUND 850 MB DUE  
TO WARM ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL 06Z-12Z THU WILL BE MOVING THRU  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL START 01-03Z  
IN DVL TO VALLEY CITY AREA. BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES ARE 06Z THU  
AND AFTER. 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY CENTERED FROM EASTERN  
SD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO  
NEAR JAMESTOWN BY LATE THURSDAY AND THEN NORTH THU NIGHT. DRY  
SLOT WORKS IN THU NIGHT, BUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MAIN  
RAIN AREA SHIFTS NORTH....SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN  
ADVANCE OF THE DRY SLOT. MU CAPE VALUES 300-700 J/KG, THOUGH 20  
PCT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOUTHERN RRV IF INDEED  
TEMPS CAN REACH 74/75. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN DOES SHIFT  
THRU DVL BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL  
SHIFT MORE WEST AND THEN SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY AS  
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...THOUGH LINGERING CHANCES DEVILS LAKE BASIN  
AND ALONG CANADIAN BORDER.  
 
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FRIDAY AND BREEZY/WINDY WITH MIXING UP TO  
850 MB WHERE WINDS ARE 35-40 KTS.  
 
WEEKEND WILL SOME SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT THIS  
COULD BE A MODEL BLEND ISSUE AS MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE IT  
DRY. WILL SEE CLEARING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES  
AROUND NORMAL. ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE EAST AND  
THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF A  
BIT STRONGER. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
CONDITIONS HAVE GONE DOWNHILL QUICKLY IN DVL AS DRIZZLE HAS  
EXPANDED JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST AMID THE UPSLOPE REGIME WITH IFR  
TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD THERE.  
FURTHER EAST FOR VALLEY SITES LIKE GFK AND FAR, MVFR IS WITH  
ONGOING OR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH A LOW  
CHANCE FOR IFR. IN BJI AND TVF EXPECT HIGH MVFR THROUGH THE DAY  
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE THAT COULD BRING VIS TO 4-5SM. DVL  
CURRENTLY SEEING VIS AT 5SM BUT JUST A BIT WEST OVER IN RUGBY  
VIS AT 2SM DUE TO THE DRIZZLE.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...TT  
 
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