721  
FXUS63 KFGF 152100  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
400 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
LIGHTNING. SOAKING RAINFALL MAY IMPACT HARVEST OPERATIONS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
WEST/GREAT BASIN, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE  
SURFACE, THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A  
WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING CONDITIONS  
COOL, CLOUDY, WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FOG MAY BE DENSE LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY  
MORNING IN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE HELP OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  
 
WATER VAPOR ALSO REVEALS A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL MIGRATE  
INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  
INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AMID  
STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS SOME  
SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY THURSDAY  
NIGHT, ENDING ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR OUR AREA.  
GETTING INTO FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM MIGRATES INTO CANADA, WITH A  
SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BREEZY WINDS SPREADING  
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ALONG WITH SOME  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT  
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RATHER  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE WAVE  
PACKETS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A RATHER  
WEST TO EAST FASHION. THIS WILL PROMOTE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SWINGING TEMPERATURE TREND FROM AVERAGE  
TO ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS HOWEVER ALSO DECREASES PREDICTABILITY  
MARKEDLY STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN  
DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS WELL AS DETAILS REGARDING  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT  
SIGNALS FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
   
..THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL TONIGHT/THURSDAY  
 
CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW  
TO DEEPEN WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA, KEEPING HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
ON ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP  
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN RAINFALL (LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP) WEST  
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TONIGHT DRIVEN BY  
WAA AMID WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST POCKETS OF  
0.5-1.5 INCH RAINFALL - RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE FOR THESE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR AREA ARE NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. WHILE  
ALL AREAS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE AT SEEING A WETTING RAINFALL, THESE  
AREAS HOLD BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOAKING RAINFALL. THIS MAY  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT HARVEST OPERATIONS AROUND THE AREA.  
 
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP, LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD  
TONIGHT. WHILE UNLIKELY, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (5%) FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS  
BETWEEN 50-60 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG  
BALLS. THESE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY STRONG SHEAR  
AMID STRONG FORCING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY.  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILTY WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ENOUGH SURFACE  
HEATING TO HELP STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SOMETHING THAT  
HIGH RES AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO NOT FAVOR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
IFR CIGS ACROSS MOST SITES, WITH POCKETS OF LOW VFR PRESENT.  
THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN  
OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN, AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AROUND  
KDVL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 12KTS, AND GUSTING NEAR  
25KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...CS  
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