218  
FXUS63 KFGF 152320  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
620 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
LIGHTNING. SOAKING RAINFALL MAY IMPACT HARVEST OPERATIONS.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
A MESSY DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW SURELY BUT MINIMAL CHANGE TO  
THE ACTUAL FORECAST WITH RAIN STILL LOOKING TO EXPAND SW TO NE  
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH > 1/4 INCH FOR MOST NORTH  
OF HWY 200. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF  
HWY 2 GOT OVER 1" (50% CHANCE) BUT ONLY FOR MAYBE 10% OF THE  
REGION WITH POINT PROBABILITIES LOW DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE  
NATURE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
WEST/GREAT BASIN, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE  
SURFACE, THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A  
WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING CONDITIONS  
COOL, CLOUDY, WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FOG MAY BE DENSE LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY  
MORNING IN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE HELP OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  
 
WATER VAPOR ALSO REVEALS A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL MIGRATE  
INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  
INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AMID  
STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS SOME  
SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY THURSDAY  
NIGHT, ENDING ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR OUR AREA.  
GETTING INTO FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM MIGRATES INTO CANADA, WITH A  
SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BREEZY WINDS SPREADING  
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ALONG WITH SOME  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT  
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RATHER  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE WAVE  
PACKETS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A RATHER  
WEST TO EAST FASHION. THIS WILL PROMOTE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SWINGING TEMPERATURE TREND FROM AVERAGE  
TO ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS HOWEVER ALSO DECREASES PREDICTABILITY  
MARKEDLY STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN  
DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS WELL AS DETAILS REGARDING  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT  
SIGNALS FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
   
..THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL TONIGHT/THURSDAY
 
 
CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW  
TO DEEPEN WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA, KEEPING HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
ON ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP  
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN RAINFALL (LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP) WEST  
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TONIGHT DRIVEN BY  
WAA AMID WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST POCKETS OF  
0.5-1.5 INCH RAINFALL - RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE FOR THESE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR AREA ARE NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. WHILE  
ALL AREAS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE AT SEEING A WETTING RAINFALL, THESE  
AREAS HOLD BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOAKING RAINFALL. THIS MAY  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT HARVEST OPERATIONS AROUND THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS  
LOWERING TONIGHT WIDELY INTO LOW MVFR AND EVEN POCKETS OF IFR IN  
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFECTING MAINLY FAR AND DVL. RAIN MOVING  
IN BETWEEN 05Z AND 9Z FOR ALL SITES WITH LINGERING SHOWERS  
INTO FRIDAY. VIS VARIABLE ACROSS SITES TONIGHT BUT WHERE HEAVIER  
RAIN OCCURS EXPECTING SOME LOWER VIS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE AND EVEN  
SOME FOG POSSIBLE BUT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGER DRIVER OF  
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED  
WITH FAR THE ONLY SITE CURRENTLY NOT LOOKING TO BE IMPACTED BY  
POTENTIAL LIGHTNING. WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 30 MPH  
NEAR FAR AFTER 21Z TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...TT  
 
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