414  
FXUS63 KFGF 160437  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
LIGHTNING. SOAKING RAINFALL MAY IMPACT HARVEST OPERATIONS.  
 
 
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
SEEING THE BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW SOUTH DAKOTA  
SLOWLY EASE NORTH WITH THIS EXPECTED TO FILL IN TO THE EAST WITH  
THE SPARSE ACTIVITY IN THE SE PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NW IOWA  
OVER THE COMING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS (NON SEVERE) CAN BE  
EXPECTED ALONG THE MN/ND/SD TRI-STATE ARE BY 4AM WITH THE  
TRAVERSING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST  
AREA BY 10AM. ONLY HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING THANKFULLY WITH SOME  
CAMS REALLY STARTING TO JUMP ON THE TREND OF SOME HIGHER TOTALS.  
NAM3K SHOWING A NICE SWATH OF 1-2" FROM JMS TO GFK TO BDE AS A  
POTENTIAL SCENARIO BUT THOSE KIND OF ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN AN  
THE OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT ACROSS A MULTITUDE OF MODELS AND  
ENSEMBLES.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
A MESSY DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW SURELY BUT MINIMAL CHANGE TO  
THE ACTUAL FORECAST WITH RAIN STILL LOOKING TO EXPAND SW TO NE  
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH > 1/4 INCH FOR MOST NORTH  
OF HWY 200. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF  
HWY 2 GOT OVER 1" (50% CHANCE) BUT ONLY FOR MAYBE 10% OF THE  
REGION WITH POINT PROBABILITIES LOW DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE  
NATURE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
WEST/GREAT BASIN, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE  
SURFACE, THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A  
WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING CONDITIONS  
COOL, CLOUDY, WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FOG MAY BE DENSE LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY  
MORNING IN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE HELP OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  
 
WATER VAPOR ALSO REVEALS A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL MIGRATE  
INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  
INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AMID  
STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS SOME  
SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY THURSDAY  
NIGHT, ENDING ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR OUR AREA.  
GETTING INTO FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM MIGRATES INTO CANADA, WITH A  
SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BREEZY WINDS SPREADING  
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ALONG WITH SOME  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT  
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RATHER  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE WAVE  
PACKETS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A RATHER  
WEST TO EAST FASHION. THIS WILL PROMOTE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SWINGING TEMPERATURE TREND FROM AVERAGE  
TO ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS HOWEVER ALSO DECREASES PREDICTABILITY  
MARKEDLY STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN  
DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS WELL AS DETAILS REGARDING  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT  
SIGNALS FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
   
..THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL TONIGHT/THURSDAY  
 
CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW  
TO DEEPEN WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA, KEEPING HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
ON ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP  
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN RAINFALL (LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP) WEST  
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TONIGHT DRIVEN BY  
WAA AMID WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST POCKETS OF  
0.5-1.5 INCH RAINFALL - RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE FOR THESE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR AREA ARE NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. WHILE  
ALL AREAS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE AT SEEING A WETTING RAINFALL, THESE  
AREAS HOLD BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOAKING RAINFALL. THIS MAY  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT HARVEST OPERATIONS AROUND THE AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
LOOKS LIKE NO-FLY NOVEMBER IS STARTING A FEW WEEKS EARLY WITH  
RAIN ON AND OFF RAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND CEILINGS VARYING  
BETWEEN LIFR IN KDVL TO IFR AT ALL OTHER SITES. WINDS SE THROUGH  
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS CONSISTENTLY UP TO 20 AND PEAK GUSTS TO  
AROUND 30KTS IN THE CASE OF ANY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS (10Z TO  
16Z) FOG NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR BUT RAIN ON ITS OWN  
WILL DRIVE DOWN VISIBILITIES TO 2-4SM AT TIMES. LLWS TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE PERIOD IN BJI 190 AT 30-40KTS BUT IF THE LLJ  
EASES WEST THIS COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR FAR, GFK AND TVF AS  
WELL. IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST WIDESPREAD MVFR  
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT VFR SEEMS UNLIKELY ON  
WIDESPREAD BASIS.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...TT  
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