005
FXUS63 KFGF 162344
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ENTERING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS GETS GOING OVER THAT AREA. ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD A BIT. REST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE IN A BIT OF A LULL
ON RADAR, BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE STARTING TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FOG MAINLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY AND
BRING SOME PRETTY LOW VISIBILITY INTO THE BARNES COUNTY AREA AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PRETTY LOW AT SOME SPOTS IN THAT
COUNTY. HOWEVER, NOT FINDING MUCH EVIDENCE ON WEB CAMS YET AND
VALLEY CITY VIS IS STILL GOOD. THINK THAT WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ANY FOG THREAT THAT FAR SOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
HOWEVER, WILL TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE THE NEXT
UPDATE TO DETERMINE IF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, TO THE NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN, SD. AHEAD
OF THE LOW, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ADVANCED
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED OUT OF THE FA. IN ITS
PLACE, FOG, DRIZZLE AND MIST HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE DENSEST FOG IS WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS OCCURING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE TRI STATE BORDER AREA, TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED
INTO THE 70S WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO
THE AREA.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BE
NEAR WINNIPEG MANITOBA BY NOON ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES STEADILY
DECREASING FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER, A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS UP.
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHEN LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES MSLP MEMBER CENTERS,
THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF SCENARIOS IN HOW THE LOW TRACKS,
RESULTING AT THIS TIME IN LOW POPS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEYOND NEXT TUESDAY, NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH DRIER WEATHER.
..DENSE FOG
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER OUR FA THROUGH MOST
OF THIS MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD, FOG WILL
CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE DENSEST FOG IS LOCATED WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE HIGHER TOPOGRAPHY ON THE NOSE OF
THE EASTERLY FLOW EXISTS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
..THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE ROUGE THUNDERSTORM THAT REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERN MN, A
"LULL" HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. A
RIBBON OF ELEVATED MUCAPE DOES STILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS RIBBON DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES/RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS,
POPS INCREASE A BIT FROM MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT,
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
LIGHT RAIN AS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS RANGE FROM UNRESTRICTED
TO LIFR, WITH SOME FOG AT KDVL BRINGING VIS DOWN BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES. SHOULD SEE SOME REDUCTIONS TO CEILING FOR A WHILE
TONIGHT, THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND, GOING TO THE SOUTH AT KGFK AND KDVL AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH, THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PUSH THROUGH.
SOME LLWS AT KBJI FOR A WHILE TONIGHT AS THEY STILL WILL BE
SEEING THE EAST EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...CJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page