692  
FXUS63 KFGF 170505  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DENSE FOG WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  
 
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH  
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
LIKELY WILL END DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT EARLIER THAN 06Z AS  
ONLY SITES REPORTING 1/4 MILE ARE OUTSIDE THE BOUNDARIES OF THE  
HEADLINE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVEMENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING  
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. A FEW LINGERING  
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST, BRINGING A BIT MORE  
ADDITIONAL RAIN.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN HAS ALLOWED FOG TO CLEAR OUT OF THE MORE SOUTHERLY  
COUNTIES AND THERE HAVE BEEN IMPROVEMENTS UP TO 2 MILES EVEN UP  
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER, A FEW WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING SOME  
PATCHY FOGGY SPOTS HOLDING ON. WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY A BIT LONGER, BUT MAY BE ABLE  
TO CANCEL EARLY IF WEB CAMS AND OBS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. A FEW  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND PARTS OF  
WEST CENTRAL MN, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL  
AND LOW IMPACT.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ENTERING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS  
925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS GETS GOING OVER THAT AREA. ADJUSTED POPS  
UPWARD A BIT. REST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE IN A BIT OF A LULL  
ON RADAR, BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE STARTING TO  
REDEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FOG MAINLY OVER OUR  
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY AND  
BRING SOME PRETTY LOW VISIBILITY INTO THE BARNES COUNTY AREA AND  
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PRETTY LOW AT SOME SPOTS IN THAT  
COUNTY. HOWEVER, NOT FINDING MUCH EVIDENCE ON WEB CAMS YET AND  
VALLEY CITY VIS IS STILL GOOD. THINK THAT WITH THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTING NORTH ANY FOG THREAT THAT FAR SOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  
HOWEVER, WILL TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE THE NEXT  
UPDATE TO DETERMINE IF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE  
EXPANDED.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE NORTH  
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, TO THE NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN, SD. AHEAD  
OF THE LOW, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ADVANCED  
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED OUT OF THE FA. IN ITS  
PLACE, FOG, DRIZZLE AND MIST HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD  
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE DENSEST FOG IS WEST OF THE RED RIVER  
VALLEY WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS OCCURING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
WARM FRONT NEAR THE TRI STATE BORDER AREA, TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED  
INTO THE 70S WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO  
THE AREA.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BE  
NEAR WINNIPEG MANITOBA BY NOON ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL  
SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES STEADILY  
DECREASING FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.  
 
THEREAFTER, A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS UP.  
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. WHEN LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES MSLP MEMBER CENTERS,  
THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF SCENARIOS IN HOW THE LOW TRACKS,  
RESULTING AT THIS TIME IN LOW POPS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER  
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEYOND NEXT TUESDAY, NEAR SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES, WITH DRIER WEATHER.  
   
..DENSE FOG  
 
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT HAS  
RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER OUR FA THROUGH MOST  
OF THIS MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD, FOG WILL  
CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE DENSEST FOG IS LOCATED WEST OF  
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE HIGHER TOPOGRAPHY ON THE NOSE OF  
THE EASTERLY FLOW EXISTS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR  
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.  
   
..THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE ROUGE THUNDERSTORM THAT REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERN MN, A  
"LULL" HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. A  
RIBBON OF ELEVATED MUCAPE DOES STILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.  
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS RIBBON DURING  
THE EVENING HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES/RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS,  
POPS INCREASE A BIT FROM MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT,  
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
A RANGE OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE  
CONDITIONS GO DOWN TO MVFR FROM VFR. MOST AIRPORTS WILL IMPROVE  
TO VFR BY TOMORROW. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR ALL  
BUT KBJI, AND THAT SPOT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING.  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-  
015-026-054.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...JR  
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY  
AVIATION...JR  
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