466  
FXUS63 KFGF 171507  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1007 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
COLD POCKET ALOFT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE NOW STACKED AND  
MATURED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHERN MB IS  
ALLOWING LIGHT RAIN/MIST IN PORTIONS OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO  
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW  
MIGRATES NORTHEAST, THIS COLD POCKET COMBINED WITH SUBTLE  
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER  
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MN.  
 
WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN, MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS  
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED DENSE  
CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM  
DAYTIME HEATING, AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION  
WRAPPING AROUND THE NOW OCCLUDED LOW; BOTH OF WHICH SERVE TO  
LIMIT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.  
 
OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
GUSTS 20-30 MPH FORECAST AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. LOW TO MID LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA  
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY  
INTO SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACT CHANCES BOTH DAYS. BREEZY  
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY, THEN  
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT, BUT  
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO  
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. H5 RIDGING FILLS  
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LOW. THIS  
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW  
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME  
MORE WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY, WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH  
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...LYNCH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page