448  
FXUS63 KFGF 171833  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
DISCUSSION WITHIN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE REMAIN VALID. LIGHT  
RAIN/MIST IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE  
SUNSET. BREEZY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
COLD POCKET ALOFT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE NOW STACKED AND  
MATURED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHERN MB IS  
ALLOWING LIGHT RAIN/MIST IN PORTIONS OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO  
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW  
MIGRATES NORTHEAST, THIS COLD POCKET COMBINED WITH SUBTLE  
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER  
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MN.  
 
WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN, MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS  
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED DENSE  
CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM  
DAYTIME HEATING, AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION  
WRAPPING AROUND THE NOW OCCLUDED LOW; BOTH OF WHICH SERVE TO  
LIMIT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.  
 
OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
GUSTS 20-30 MPH FORECAST AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. LOW TO MID LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA  
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY  
INTO SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACT CHANCES BOTH DAYS. BREEZY  
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY, THEN  
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT, BUT  
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO  
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. H5 RIDGING FILLS  
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LOW. THIS  
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION THIS TAF  
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER MAJORITY OF THE  
AREA BEFORE 00Z. AFTER 00Z, THESE LOW CEILINGS LESSEN IN  
COVERAGE, MAINLY THEN FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  
 
INCREASED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20KT GUSTING TO 27KT WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, WINDS LESSEN TO AROUND 6KT.  
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
20KT. LOW CEILINGS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN AFTER 18Z  
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH  
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...CJ  
 
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