608  
FXUS63 KFGF 171957  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS CHANCE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
MATURED AND STACKED UPPER LOW IS VIEWABLE ON SATELLITE OVER  
SOUTHEAST MB/NORTHWEST ON, PROVIDING LIGHT RAIN/MIST NEAR THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.  
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS AMID BROADER LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING  
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH IS ALSO VIEWABLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES AND  
ADJACENT PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE  
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST  
SATURDAY, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA  
AS WELL AS CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
 
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS AN  
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER WAVE PACKETS TRAVERSING  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IN A GENERALLY WEST TO  
EAST FASHION. ONE OF THESE PACKETS FEATURES A HYBRID/CLIPPER-  
LIKE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN LATE  
SUNDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR  
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS COULD ALSO  
BRING THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOWFLAKES. MORE DETAILS ON THESE  
BELOW.  
 
GETTING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SLOWS WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES  
IN CENTRAL CONUS COUPLED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGHING FROM  
NEAR THE HUDSON BAY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY  
IN LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF EACH SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS TIME.  
SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGING BE MORE OF THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO  
INFLUENCE OUR REGION, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED;  
WHEREAS MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD PROMOTE COOLER,  
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IN EITHER SCENARIO, OVERALL DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE POSSIBLE UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH.  
   
..CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
 
 
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VARY TO SOME DEGREE IN THE  
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS HYBRID/CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BETWEEN SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH, CHANCE  
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INCREASES.  
IN THIS SCENARIO, PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD REACH INTO THE 0.25 TO  
1.0 INCH RANGE. A STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH SYSTEM WOULD ALSO  
SERVE TO DRAG COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT.  
THIS WOULD ALLOW THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW TO BECOME POSSIBLE ON  
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR  
ITS DEFORMATION ZONE UPON ITS DEPARTURE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR AND  
THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, SNOW WILL CERTAINLY  
BE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SHOULD SNOW OCCUR, IMPACTS WILL BE  
MINIMAL DUE TO THE SNOW'S INABILITY TO ACCUMULATE THANKS TO  
SEASONABLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS THE LIKELY  
TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW. ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM SNOWFALL  
WOULD BE FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY, SOMETHING THAT REMAINS UNKNOWN  
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY IN MESOSCALE FEATURES  
LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND SUBTLE, BUT INFLUENTIAL  
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NEAR IT.  
 
SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH, LOWER  
COVERAGE AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF QPF WILL BE FAVORED, WITH NO MORE  
THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD ALSO  
MARKEDLY LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW DUE TO OVERALL WARMER  
TEMPERATURES AND LESS FORCING WITHIN OUR AREA.  
 
EITHER SCENARIO WOULD STILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE  
REGION, WHICH MAY REACH ADVISORY-CRITERIA/EXCEED 45 MPH. HIGHEST  
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION THIS TAF  
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER MAJORITY OF THE  
AREA BEFORE 00Z. AFTER 00Z, THESE LOW CEILINGS LESSEN IN  
COVERAGE, MAINLY THEN FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  
 
INCREASED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20KT GUSTING TO 27KT WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, WINDS LESSEN TO AROUND 6KT.  
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
20KT. LOW CEILINGS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN AFTER 18Z  
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...CJ  
 
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