458  
FXUS63 KFGF 172335  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
635 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS CHANCE.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
MUCH OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS RETREATED TO NORTH OF THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST A SOME SLIGHT  
CHANCES NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS. STRATUS PERSISTING OVER THE FAR  
NORTHERN RRV INTO NORTHWESTERN MN, BUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING. MORE MID AND HIGH  
CLOUD EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
MATURED AND STACKED UPPER LOW IS VIEWABLE ON SATELLITE OVER  
SOUTHEAST MB/NORTHWEST ON, PROVIDING LIGHT RAIN/MIST NEAR THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.  
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS AMID BROADER LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING  
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH IS ALSO VIEWABLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES AND  
ADJACENT PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE  
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST  
SATURDAY, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA  
AS WELL AS CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
 
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS AN  
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER WAVE PACKETS TRAVERSING  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IN A GENERALLY WEST TO  
EAST FASHION. ONE OF THESE PACKETS FEATURES A HYBRID/CLIPPER-  
LIKE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN LATE  
SUNDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR  
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS COULD ALSO  
BRING THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOWFLAKES. MORE DETAILS ON THESE  
BELOW.  
 
GETTING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SLOWS WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES  
IN CENTRAL CONUS COUPLED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGHING FROM  
NEAR THE HUDSON BAY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY  
IN LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF EACH SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS TIME.  
SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGING BE MORE OF THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO  
INFLUENCE OUR REGION, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED;  
WHEREAS MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD PROMOTE COOLER,  
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IN EITHER SCENARIO, OVERALL DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE POSSIBLE UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH.  
   
..CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
 
 
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VARY TO SOME DEGREE IN THE  
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS HYBRID/CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BETWEEN SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH, CHANCE  
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INCREASES.  
IN THIS SCENARIO, PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD REACH INTO THE 0.25 TO  
1.0 INCH RANGE. A STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH SYSTEM WOULD ALSO  
SERVE TO DRAG COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT.  
THIS WOULD ALLOW THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW TO BECOME POSSIBLE ON  
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR  
ITS DEFORMATION ZONE UPON ITS DEPARTURE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR AND  
THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, SNOW WILL CERTAINLY  
BE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SHOULD SNOW OCCUR, IMPACTS WILL BE  
MINIMAL DUE TO THE SNOW'S INABILITY TO ACCUMULATE THANKS TO  
SEASONABLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS THE LIKELY  
TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW. ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM SNOWFALL  
WOULD BE FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY, SOMETHING THAT REMAINS UNKNOWN  
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY IN MESOSCALE FEATURES  
LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND SUBTLE, BUT INFLUENTIAL  
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NEAR IT.  
 
SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH, LOWER  
COVERAGE AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF QPF WILL BE FAVORED, WITH NO MORE  
THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD ALSO  
MARKEDLY LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW DUE TO OVERALL WARMER  
TEMPERATURES AND LESS FORCING WITHIN OUR AREA.  
 
EITHER SCENARIO WOULD STILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE  
REGION, WHICH MAY REACH ADVISORY-CRITERIA/EXCEED 45 MPH. HIGHEST  
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
SOME MVFR STRATUS HANGING AROUND JUST NORTH OF THE MN AIRPORTS,  
AND KTVF AND KBJI BOTH REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR. EXPECTING  
SOME PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW  
MORNING. THE ND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE  
NORTHWEST TOMORROW WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JR  
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...JR  
 
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