429
FXUS63 KFGF 041205
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
605 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY TO BRING MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AFTER REVIEWING 06Z MODEL DATA
AND CURRENTS. DO EXPECT TO SEE BETTER SATURATION LATE TODAY AND
EVENING AS WAVE AND LOW MOVE EAST. NAM CONTINUES TO PAINT A
BRIEF BUT STRONG AREA OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NEAR AND
JUST NORTH OF HWY 2 MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
300-500 MB JET FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS WEEK.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES
AND ACT TO DEVELOP WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALBERTA WHICH WILL THEN TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WITH EACH
SYSTEM IS MEAGER AND MOVEMENT IS FAST. SO WOULD EXPECT QUICK
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IMPACTS FROM EACH ONE
WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PTYPES THRU THURSDAY BUT COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH MAY GIVE A
RISK OF SOME WINTRY WEATHER FRI NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
TODAY WILL SEE A FAST MOVING WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A 60 KT 500 MB
JET THAT MOVES INTO E ND THIS AFTN AND INTO NORTHERN MN THIS
EVENING. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO
INCREASING FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AROUND 850 MB THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE MID RRV AND EXPANDS EAST. NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THIS
FORCING. DID STICK WITH NBM POPS AND QPF WITH POPS INCREASING TO
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING IN NORTHERN MN. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED ONCE RAIN BAND DEVELOPS. THERE IS A DRY LAYER BETWEEN
SFC-850 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME INITIALLY TO GET RAIN
TO THE GROUND.
SYSTEMS MOVES OUT LATER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SFC
LOW FORMING NORTHEAST OF CALGARY WED NIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...THE
MAIN FORCING AT 850-700 MB IS FOCUSED THURSDAY IN CENTRAL INTO
WEST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THEN FORCING WEAKENS AS SFC LOW TRACKS
SOUTHEAST WITH SFC LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS THURSDAY EVENING. WARM
ENOUGH AIR TO KEEP SNOW FARTHER NORTH, AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THRU SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN
THURSDAY AFTN/EVE.
NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES A TAD FARTHER SOUTH WITH
SFC LOW FORMING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPACTED BY 500 MB LOW AND SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DEVELOP
OVER HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. TRENDS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS HAS SHOWN THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING MORE SO
FROM SW SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, WESTERN ND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NBM MAY BE A TAD FARTHER EAST AS COMPARED
TO THE GFS, ECMWF ENSEMBLES WHICH FAVOR A BIT MORE WEST TRACK VS
NBM POPS INDICATE. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SNOW WITH THIS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THU SYSTEM....BUT MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED SO THAT ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE UNDER 2 INCHES
IN HEAVIEST AREA...PROBS FOR 1 INCH OR MORE 50 PCT DVL REGION
FRI NIGHT. I EXPECT FURTHER TWEEKS TO PRECIPITATION TRACK AND
AMOUNTS THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
MID AFTERNOON INTO DVL AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVE IN GFK/TVF AND
EVENING IN BJI. AS WINDS TURN WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN THE EVENING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE,
BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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