336
FXUS63 KFGF 050351
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY ONLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES EXPERIENCING RAIN. DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR EVERYONE.
THEREAFTER, IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING AFTER SATURATION HAS
MANAGED TO GET PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. MOST OF THE BETTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
FORCING WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST WHILE OVERLAPPING SATURATION.
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT, GIVING WAY
TO CLEARING SKIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, PREVENTING
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND IN MANY PLACES. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SATURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A STRONGER H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION THIS WEEKEND,
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE SNOW IS AROUND 50 PERCENT, MAINLY
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
EVENTUALLY EXITING ALL TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WHERE STRATUS LEAKS IN, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BJI.
BJI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS UNTIL RAIN
EXITS AND DRIER AIR COMES IN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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