343
FXUS63 KFGF 051155
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
555 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE AREA THE NEXT 7 DAY IS
LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SNOW CHANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SKIES CLEAR AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. NO REASON TO UPDATE ANY GRIDS OTHER THAN FOR CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL BRING NORTHWEST WIND AND TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. BUT WILL SEE SUNSHINE ALL DAY, TIL HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS A POWERFUL 500 MB LOW OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
A SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OREGON COAST
NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA BY 06Z THU WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING
NORTHEAST OF CALGARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
MODELS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE
LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRI AND
THEN EAST FROM THERE THRU FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BAND OF SNOW
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK BY ABOUT 50-100 MILES.
PRECIPITATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE NEAR THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WITH WARM ENOUGH TEMPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. AS LOW MOVES EAST WINDS
TURN NORTH TO 15-20 MPH FOR A TIME AND COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH
WITH A WEAKENING AREA OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN TURNS TO A LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX BEFORE ENDING. TEMPS
WILL STAY ABOVE 32F DURING ANY PRECIPITATION, SO IMPACTS FROM
ANY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL. 20 PCT PROB OF 0.1 INCH
OF SNOW OR MORE FAR NORTH ALONG THE BORDER THURS EVE.
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THIS ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN AGAIN
FRIDAY LATE. FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, THERE REMAINS A WEST SHIFT IN ALL MODELS, ENSEMBLES,
AND PROBS FROM NBM WITH PROB FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW NOW WELL
WEST OF THE FGF FORECAST AREA. 30 PCT PROBS FOR 0.5 INCH OR
MORE IN OUR DVL-FARGO AREA WEST. NBM POPS ARE NOW BLO 15 PCT
LANGDON TO MAYVILLE TO WAHPETON TO ELBOW LAKE MN AND EAST...SO
NO WEATHER IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM THRU NW MN AND
NORTHERN RRV, INCL GRAND FORKS. THUS TREND CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LESS AND LESS CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS IN OUR AREA. WPC WSSI-P
ALSO WEST WITH 20 PCT PROB MINOR WINTRY IMPACTS NOW CROSBY ND
AREA TO MINOT TO JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK. ECMWF EFI ALSO
SHIFTED WEST OUR OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD SHOT SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY THEN
REBOUNDING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR THRU THE DAY. SKIES CLEAR TODAY THEN INCREASING CIRRUS LATE
TODAY THRU TONIGHIT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS TODAY,
THEN LIGHT AND TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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