812
FXUS63 KFGF 052329
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
529 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 INCH OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
MAY ARISE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY RAIN OR SNOW, BUT IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILL INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY GIVES WAY TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. AN H5 LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD, OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION, THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. AHEAD OF THE LEADING TROUGH, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ENSEMBLES ARE NOW CONVERGING ON MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS, AFTER SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A WESTWARD SHIFT.
AT THE CURRENT TIME, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5
INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH BETTER PROBABILITY
EVER FURTHER WEST. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS ARISES NEAR A TAF SITE
PRECLUDES ADDING IT TO THE ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.
AS THE SUN RISES TOMORROW, EXPECT SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KNOTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO EVENTUALLY WESTERLY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO BELOW 10 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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