917
FXUS63 KFGF 061747
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 INCH OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WEST OF DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO.
- POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY AFFECT BAUDETTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING CLOUD COVER,
OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RETURNS, BUT LITTLE TO NONE OF THIS IS
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A STOUT LAYER OF DRY AIR. CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF TONIGHTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKER IS OVER
SASKATCHEWAN, WHERE THE SURFACE LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST. VERY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ALL GOING AS FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING. TEMPS WARMING UP AS CLOUDS AND
WINDS MOVE INTO THE FAR EAST FCST AREA. 06Z MODEL DATA SUGGEST
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO NEED TO CHANGE OR ALTER
MESSAGING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OVERALL THE FORECAST THRU SATURDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVED INTO ALBERTA AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF CALGARY AND WILL END UP TRACKING TO
NEAR ESTEVAN SK AND THEN TO NEAR GRAFTON ND THEN TO RED LAKE MN
THRU THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION AREA REMAINS NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND CLOSER TO A 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT IS
TRACKING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF THE LOW. SNOW AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD EAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THEN NW
ONTARIO THRU THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
RAIN AREA WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP THRU 03Z
FRI. COLDER AIR AND A NORTH WIND BEHIND THE LOW SPREADS SOUTH
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SOUTH BUT WEAKEN AS IT DOES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 OVERNIGHT BUT INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...A
TENTH OR TWO. NO ACCUMULATION FARTHER SOUTH NEAR HWY 2.
BRIEF CLEARING FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH WIND AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES WORKING SOUTH, BUT THE STRONGEST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
WILL AWAIT TIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND LOW WILL AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH. SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE THRU WASHINGTON STATE AND
INSTEAD OF MOVING NORTHEAST LIKE THE CURRENT ONE, A SHORT WAVE
MOVES MORE EAST INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA 18Z FRIDAY AND THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SW NORTH DAKOTA 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO HAVE A NARROW 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BAND
JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF 850 MB LOW WHICH DOES TRACK FROM NEAR
MEDICINE HAT AB INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THIS PUTS A RATHER NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL WITH 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FAR SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
PROBS FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW 70 PCT FROM REGINA TO ESTEVAN
SK THRU MINOT, STANLEY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THEN TO
WEST OF ABERDEEN SD. ENSEMBLES FROM GFS AND ECMWF FROM 00Z RUN
INDICATES PROB 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW 20-30 PERCENT WEST OF
DEVILS LAKE TO NEAR VALLEY CITY-FORMAN. ECMWF ENSEMBLES A TAD
FARTHER EAST WITH THESE SNOW PROBS VS GEFS.
ONE THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE WARMER LAKES....WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS FAVORING SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO
BAUDETTE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS, COLDEST NIGHT SUN NIGHT. 500 MB RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH 40S AND LOW 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, A BAND OF MVFR WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR MIXED IN TOWARDS SUNRISE. AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST, IMPACTING KDVL
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, PREDICTABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY
MENTION OF THEM IN AT OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SINCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT
SEE CATEGORY REDUCTIONS. WINDS, WHILE NOT STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WILL PINWHEEL DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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