516
FXUS63 KFGF 061914
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
114 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WEST OF A LINE FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT BAUDETTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG IT, TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA, ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN, ARE PROPAGATING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. BROAD WAA/SYNOPTIC ASCENT OVER THE FA HAS LEAD TO
LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE HAS KEPT ANYTHING FROM
REACHING THE GROUND, PER NDAWN AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS. AS
STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BREAK OUT, PRODUCING A BROAD, ALBEIT LIGHT AREA RAIN AND SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED, WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING GRASSY
SURFACES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY FOSTER LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM
CANADA SHOULD END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A COLD
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS RIDGING FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGHOUT NEXT WORK WEEK.
..FRIDAY & SATURDAY SNOW
WHILE TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW, THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, ALONG WITH TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS, WILL FOSTER A
BROKEN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FGF AND BIS CWA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.5" OR
MORE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS 60% WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
DROPPING QUICKLY TO UNDER 10% WITHIN THE VALLEY.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WORKING THROUGH THE FA THIS
WEEKEND IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATER
TEMPERATURES, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LARGER AREA
LAKES, PARTICULARLY LAKE OF THE WOODS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, A BAND OF MVFR WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR MIXED IN TOWARDS SUNRISE. AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST, IMPACTING KDVL
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, PREDICTABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY
MENTION OF THEM IN AT OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SINCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT
SEE CATEGORY REDUCTIONS. WINDS, WHILE NOT STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WILL PINWHEEL DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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