644
FXUS63 KFGF 070519
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WEST OF A LINE FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT BAUDETTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS IN MANITOBA BUT IS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD STILL. AS THIS CONTINUES TO DIG, EXPECT RAIN/SNOW TO
INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS. THE CWA SHOULD START TO SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS SATURATION IS ONGOING. FURTHER
NORTH INTO MANITOBA, RAIN AND SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL
DIVE DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO OUR AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF WINNIPEG CONTINUES TO DIG.
ANY AMOUNTS FROM SNOWFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND AT MOST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND TIME NEEDED FOR THE COLD FRONT ALOFT TO PUSH
THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG IT, TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA, ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN, ARE PROPAGATING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. BROAD WAA/SYNOPTIC ASCENT OVER THE FA HAS LEAD TO
LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE HAS KEPT ANYTHING FROM
REACHING THE GROUND, PER NDAWN AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS. AS
STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BREAK OUT, PRODUCING A BROAD, ALBEIT LIGHT AREA RAIN AND SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED, WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING GRASSY
SURFACES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY FOSTER LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM
CANADA SHOULD END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A COLD
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS RIDGING FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGHOUT NEXT WORK WEEK.
..FRIDAY & SATURDAY SNOW
WHILE TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW, THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, ALONG WITH TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS, WILL FOSTER A
BROKEN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FGF AND BIS CWA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.5" OR
MORE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS 60% WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
DROPPING QUICKLY TO UNDER 10% WITHIN THE VALLEY.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WORKING THROUGH THE FA THIS
WEEKEND IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATER
TEMPERATURES, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LARGER AREA
LAKES, PARTICULARLY LAKE OF THE WOODS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE BULK OF THE AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS IS BECAUSE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MVFR
AND LIKELY IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY
FOR LIFR, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILINGS GETTING THAT LOW
AT ANY TAF SITE. ACCOMPANYING THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SNOW AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT VISIBILITIES,
PARTICULARLY WHEN RAIN BECOMES ALL SNOW, SO EXPECT ISOLATED
2-4SM AT TIMES. THERE IS THE VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF IF IT DOES ARISE AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY.
AFTER 12Z, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
MORNING, EVENTUALLY GETTING TO VFR FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL TAF SITES
BY 21Z. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, LOWER CEILINGS WILL
BE DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST, POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MVFR AT
DVL BY 06Z TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...PERROUX
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