690
FXUS63 KFGF 070934
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH, THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF
A NEW ROCKFORD TO FORMAN LINE. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
AN IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT BAUDETTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. SOME BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO UNDER A MILE WHERE SNOW IS REALLY
GOING, BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACTS. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, WITH A FRONT
USHERING IN COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT, AND BRING ANOTHER QUICK ROUND
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FLOW BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN AND HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES, ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEAMPLIFY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
VALUES, WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
..SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT FOCUSED
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS SOME GOOD 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR CWA, SO CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME MESOSCALE FORCING. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW
BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT LEAST A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS DUE TO
GROUND TEMPERATURE. PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ARE MOSTLY
RIGHT ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH BIS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50
PERCENT WITH THE HREF TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH THE NBM.
GIVEN THE LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED DUE TO MELTING AS SNOW HITS THE
GROUND, LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER PROBABILITY. MAIN ISSUES WILL
BE BRIEF AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT OURS AS VISIBILITY DECREASES
WITH FALLING SNOW, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR COMING DOWN OVER THE STILL OPEN LAKES,
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ANY WINTER IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED DEPENDING ON WHERE
EXACTLY SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE BULK OF THE AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS IS BECAUSE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MVFR
AND LIKELY IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY
FOR LIFR, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILINGS GETTING THAT LOW
AT ANY TAF SITE. ACCOMPANYING THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SNOW AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT VISIBILITIES,
PARTICULARLY WHEN RAIN BECOMES ALL SNOW, SO EXPECT ISOLATED
2-4SM AT TIMES. THERE IS THE VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF IF IT DOES ARISE AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY.
AFTER 12Z, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
MORNING, EVENTUALLY GETTING TO VFR FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL TAF SITES
BY 21Z. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, LOWER CEILINGS WILL
BE DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST, POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MVFR AT
DVL BY 06Z TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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