055
FXUS63 KFGF 071145
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
545 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH, THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF
A NEW ROCKFORD TO FORMAN LINE. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
AN IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT BAUDETTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AS SOME RAIN BEING REPORTED IN THE FARGO AREA AND SNOW
AROUND DETROIT LAKES. STILL LOOKING VERY LITTLE IMPACTS AS WHAT
LITTLE SNOW THERE IS HAS BEEN MELTING ON PAVED SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. SOME BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO UNDER A MILE WHERE SNOW IS REALLY
GOING, BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACTS. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, WITH A FRONT
USHERING IN COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT, AND BRING ANOTHER QUICK ROUND
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FLOW BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN AND HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES, ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEAMPLIFY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
VALUES, WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
..SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT FOCUSED
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS SOME GOOD 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR CWA, SO CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME MESOSCALE FORCING. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW
BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT LEAST A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS DUE TO
GROUND TEMPERATURE. PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ARE MOSTLY
RIGHT ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH BIS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50
PERCENT WITH THE HREF TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH THE NBM.
GIVEN THE LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED DUE TO MELTING AS SNOW HITS THE
GROUND, LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER PROBABILITY. MAIN ISSUES WILL
BE BRIEF AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT OURS AS VISIBILITY DECREASES
WITH FALLING SNOW, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR COMING DOWN OVER THE STILL OPEN LAKES,
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ANY WINTER IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED DEPENDING ON WHERE
EXACTLY SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
IFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH KDVL HAS IMPROVED TO MVFR.
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP, MAINLY RAIN BUT A BIT OF SNOW,
AROUND KFAR AND THE MN AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN VFR LATER IN THE DAY FOR MOST SITES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTH WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN START TO TAPER OFF A BIT TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page