039
FXUS63 KFGF 080521
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1121 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING TO NEAR
1 INCH, WITH HIGHER SPOTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FROM THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO THE SHEYENNE VALLEY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKEY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TENTHS TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIN BANDS WITH AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON DURATION
AND RATE OF SNOWFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTH SHORES OF
LAKE OF THE WOODS HAS ALLOWED US TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR LAKE OF THE
WOODS COUNTY. STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THANKS TO
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG
BANDS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST, SO AMOUNTS COULD RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN THIN BANDS. DUE TO
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON, AN SPS WAS ISSUED
AIRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
LOW IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE LEADING
WARM AIR ADVECTION NOW CENTERED ON A LINE FROM CROSBY ND TO
BISMARCK. SNOW SHOULD START TO INCREASE WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWFALL MAY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY, ALTHOUGH MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN WEST OF THE VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE LOW STILL REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE
LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION STRETCHING ON A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO MINOT. THIS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SNOW BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE AS TIMING REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS H5 LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY
SEEING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE FLOWING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS LIKELY
NOT REACHING THE 30 DEGREE MARK. LOWS EACH MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW TO
START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
..SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
H5 SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SOURCE OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A MUCH LARGER H5 LOW, SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP DGZ THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WEST OF A
LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY. CAMS DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME, MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER
LIMIT OF SNOWFALL. THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR UP TO ABOUT
1 INCH OF SNOW; HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING MESOSCALE SUPPORT FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 INCHES.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SAT INTO SUN
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS ARE SET TO IMPACT LAKE OF THE WOODS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THIS
TIME, COLD AIR WILL BLOW ACROSS THE WARM LAKE WATERS, INCREASING
LAPSE RATES AND ALLOWING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE LAKE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SITES MAY
DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT DVL AND BJI. DVL IS LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE SNOW AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MORNING. MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF
SNOWFALL. SNOW MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS GFK AND FAR BUT
SHOULDN'T GET MUCH FURTHER THAN THAT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN VALLEY WIND EFFECTS, IT DOES
APPEAR LIKE 25-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY HIGHER.
BLOWING SNOW SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE AFTER FALLING SNOW ENDS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM, BUT VFR OBSCURATIONS OF VISIBILITY
COULD ARISE IF ENOUGH ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND 00Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LINGERING ABOVE 10 KNOTS
THEREAFTER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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