946
FXUS63 KFGF 081743
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY COULD
SEE A DUSTING TO NEAR 1 INCH.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OF
THE WOODS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TENTHS TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIN BANDS WITH AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON
DURATION AND RATE OF SNOWFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT TIMES IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN, WITH OTHERWISE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER 30S
SOUTH. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT MIDDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
RADAR OVER EASTERN ND CONTINUES A DOWNWARD TREND, BUT STILL SOME
SNOW TO OUR WEST WITH RADAR RETURNS SHOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH, BUT STILL SOME GOOD CHANCES FOR A
DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ND WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY, ARRIVING IN THE IOWA AREA BY THIS EVENING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT, TURNING FLOW ALOFT IN A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER RIDGING
STARTS BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY,
WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICKING UP. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NO
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA.
..LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING
SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING IN RECENT SCANS. NEW ROCKFORD WEB
CAM SHOWED SOME DECENT SNOW RATES FOR A WHILE, WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OF THE
HEAVIER MESOSCALE BANDS SUCH AS THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER MINOT
RADAR MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND GOOD FRONTOGENESIS SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO SD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT LEAST SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
OVER 2 INCHES HAVE DWINDLED DOWN TO NOTHING IN THAT AREA. COULD
SEE A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH BEFORE THE SYSTEM FULLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ONE PLACE THAT THE HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT PROBABILITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS DOWNWIND OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. CHANCES
FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT AND EVEN 3 INCHES
AND ABOVE IS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE, LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RATHER HIGH THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN TOMORROW. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY BANDS SET UP AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST.
STILL LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING FROM A DUSTING UP TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE OVER A VERY LIMITED AREA, SO WILL KEEP SPS GOING FOR
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KFAR AND KTVF ARE SEEING AT LEAST INTERMITTENT VFR CONDITIONS
AT MIDDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. LOOK FOR
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN MOST AREAS, WITH KDVL STILL POSSIBLY SEEING
A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE MORE SUNDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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