509
FXUS63 KFGF 090533
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIN BANDS OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
SOUTH, WITH LARGER AREAS OF CLEARING STARTING TO ARRIVE IN OUR
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS IS GENERALLY MATCHING UP WITH PREVIOUS
UPDATE TRENDS AND ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
DURING THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
FLURRIES HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST
MN AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION IN
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY LIGHT DUSTING IS BEING
OBSERVED WHERE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING (MAINLY ON
GRASSY SURFACES). IF THIS WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS, SLICK
SPOTS COULD DEVELOP CREATING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AS FOLKS
ADJUST TO EARLY WINTER DRIVING. I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING PERIOD WHEN THIS MID LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OFF AND ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS, THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. A STRONG H5 TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. GUSTS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WITH UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS H5
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE 30S ON MONDAY TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
THE CURRENT AREAS OF STRATUS (2000-4000 FT AGL) AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO TRANSITION SOUTH WITH AREAS
OF CLEARING BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. THIS PERIOD OF VFR MAY END UP BEING BRIEF AS THE
NEXT AREA OF STRATUS (1500-2500 FT AGL) UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO ARE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN AND FAR EASTERN ND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST MN MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS STRATUS LINGER (CLOSER TO THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT) AND WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR MAY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
IN KBJI IT WOULD EVENTUALLY FILL BACK IN.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL IN THE 10-13KT
RANGE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS/GUSTS
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY (GUSTS 25-30KT
MAINLY IN EASTERN ND).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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