342
FXUS63 KFGF 090944
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIN BANDS OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THERE HAS
BEEN A BIT OF CLEARING FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES, CURRENTLY
ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FLURRIES ALSO HAVE BEEN
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH, SO INCLUDED MENTION WHEREVER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THICK ENOUGH THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE WILL START TO NOSE INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING UP.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO RIDGING EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMES EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS BRINGING OUT A CLOSED LOW
AND OTHERS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE
ENSEMBLES TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR COMES
DOWN. STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AIR AND WATER TEMPS,
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS STRONG OF A SIGNAL FOR SNOW
AS YESTERDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE FAIRLY HIGH SOUTH OF BAUDETTE, BUT ONLY AROUND 30
PERCENT FOR AN INCH OR SO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LAKE
EFFECT, BUT AT THIS POINT IMPACTS LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL AND WON'T
GO WITH ANY DEDICATED MESSAGING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
THE CURRENT AREAS OF STRATUS (2000-4000 FT AGL) AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO TRANSITION SOUTH WITH AREAS
OF CLEARING BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. THIS PERIOD OF VFR MAY END UP BEING BRIEF AS THE
NEXT AREA OF STRATUS (1500-2500 FT AGL) UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO ARE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN AND FAR EASTERN ND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST MN MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS STRATUS LINGER (CLOSER TO THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT) AND WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR MAY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
IN KBJI IT WOULD EVENTUALLY FILL BACK IN.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL IN THE 10-13KT
RANGE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS/GUSTS
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY (GUSTS 25-30KT
MAINLY IN EASTERN ND).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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