319
FXUS63 KFGF 091745
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIN BANDS OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER, AS STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
IN AREAS EVEN WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE OUR CHILLY
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, ONLY WARMING UP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR
30 DEGREES AREA WIDE FOR HIGHS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES UNDER STRATUS THIS MORNING, WITH
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING -SN ON AND OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
NEXT ROUND OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN MN, AND STILL SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING NEAR THE SD BORDER. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER. A COUPLE OF WEB CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FEW WHITE
STREAKS, SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR FLURRIES GOING. IMPACTS
STILL LOOK MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THERE HAS
BEEN A BIT OF CLEARING FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES, CURRENTLY
ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FLURRIES ALSO HAVE BEEN
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH, SO INCLUDED MENTION WHEREVER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THICK ENOUGH THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE WILL START TO NOSE INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING UP.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO RIDGING EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMES EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS BRINGING OUT A CLOSED LOW
AND OTHERS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE
ENSEMBLES TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR COMES
DOWN. STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AIR AND WATER TEMPS,
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS STRONG OF A SIGNAL FOR SNOW
AS YESTERDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE FAIRLY HIGH SOUTH OF BAUDETTE, BUT ONLY AROUND 30
PERCENT FOR AN INCH OR SO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LAKE
EFFECT, BUT AT THIS POINT IMPACTS LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL AND WON'T
GO WITH ANY DEDICATED MESSAGING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
CURRENTLY, MVFR WITH SOME IFR POCKETS ARE ROAMING THE REGION.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IFR POCKETS, PUT IN A TEMPO AT KBJI, WHERE
IFR COVERAGE IS GREATEST BUT NOT PREVAILING. GENERAL THINKING
IS THAT CEILINGS WILL HOLD ABOUT WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN RISE INTO VFR BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THIS STRATUS DECK, BUT THEY
WILL BRING NO AVIATION IMPACTS SO LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FOR TODAY,
THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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