816
FXUS63 KFGF 100400
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
STRATUS LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
ONLY HIGHER CLOUDS WEST. A FEW CAMS STILL SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A
FEW POCKETS OF FOG IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
CLEARED NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE BUT HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN 08-13Z WHERE THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE
CONSISTENT AND TENDS TO BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGION
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
REFLECT NEAR TERM TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
LOW STRATUS LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, WITH A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF
THE VALLEY WHERE HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE.
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING EAST AND GRADIENT IS WEAKENING IN THE
WEST AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE EAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED LATER TONIGHT
NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, HOWEVER AS BL SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN DRIER AND JUST MIXED ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AND THE CONSENSUS IS FOR NO FOG IN OUR ND COUNTIES. I
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CONUS. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BOOKING THROUGH OUR
FA HAS LEFT US UNDER A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS THAT IS PRODUCING
A FEW FLURRIES. SNOW AND FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT
DOWNWIND OF OUR LARGER LAKES, WHICH ARE STILL WARM AND OPEN.
HOWEVER, WHEN LOOKING AT WEBCAMS, THEY SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE STUCK IN THE 20S EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHEN YOU ADD IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
20 TO 30 MPH, WIND CHILLS HAVE BARELY MANAGED TO REACH THE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN MAY SPOTS. THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
AS RIDGING WILL START BUILDING IN ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE,
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY MONDAY NIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY RISE ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO EVEN 50S IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. WITHIN THE WAA
REGIME MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE, SO IT IS QUESTIONABLE
HOW MUCH IF ANY WILL REACH THE GROUND. WITH A DEEP WARM NOSE
ALOFT, PTYPE WILL BE COMPLICATED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL
NEAR FREEZING ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY, AS IF ANY
SPRINKLES CAN REACH THE GROUND THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE MN SIDE OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER, NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS, WITH THIS FA SET UP ON THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, MUCH LIKE WE WERE FOR LAST WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY IN THE 40S, WARMING FURTHER
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL COME TO SOME SORT OF AN END LATE NEXT WEEKEND, AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE
VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS, WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY OF ANY SYSTEM(S). THEREFORE, WILL KEEP
LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT UNTIL PREDICTABILITY INCREASES, NO REAL DETAILS CAN BE
ADDED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A LARGE REGION OF MVFR STRATUS IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN (1200-3000 FT AGL) WITH A SHARP WESTERN CUTOFF
WHERE CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ND
(INCLUDING KDVL). THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD WORK EAST WITH
SHIFTING FLOW TONIGHT, HOWEVER DUE TO THE POSITION OF FLOW
ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING STRATUS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
HOW SOON THIS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT KFAR AND KGFK (MORE LIKELY
MONDAY MORNING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS). IFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWN
BY GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST MN
BEFORE ALL STRATUS FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY AS MUCH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. IT IS WORTH NOTING,
THAT THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE REGION OF CLEARING TONIGHT IN ND, THOUGH NO GUIDANCE HAS A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT KDVL (CHANCES LESS THAN 20%).
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DECREASING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING EAST AND LOW LEVELS STABILIZE POST SUNSET, AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5KT (OR LESS). SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE BUILDING UPSTREAM IN
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION (GUSTS 25-30KT).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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